000 AXNT20 KNHC 250528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jul 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation also is near the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 180 nm to the west of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. An upper level trough passes from the NW Bahamas into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the northwest of the line that runs from Hispaniola to the SE coast of Nicaragua. A tropical wave is along 95W, passing through parts of the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico and through the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, from 20N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N southward, the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Isolated moderate also is in the coastal plains and the coastal waters of Mexico from 23N southward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 18N16W, to 12N30W and 09N46W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm to 600 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate is within 400 nm to the north of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Florida Panhandle. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and inland to Alabama and Georgia. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 24N northward from 90W eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is from 26N southward from 85W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. This cyclonic wind flow is related to the inland Mexico 26N101W cyclonic circulation center. A surface ridge passes from a South Carolina 1020 mb high pressure center, to the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 21N97W. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the north central and central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate ESE to SSE winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet are in the remainder of the Gulf. Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico, allowing gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail. Similar conditions are expected through the forecast period. The exception will remain near and to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours over the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. An upper level trough passes from the NW Bahamas into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the northwest of the line that runs from Hispaniola to the SE coast of Nicaragua. A surface trough is along 72W from 20N to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N to 27N between 70W and 77W. An easterly trade wind pattern spans the entire basin. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are in the central sections, and in the waters that are to the south of Cuba. Gentle to moderate trade winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, cover the remainder of the basin. The monsoon trough is along 10N, between 74W in Colombia, and beyond Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from Colombia westward. A pressure gradient in the central Caribbean Sea will support pulsing fresh to strong east winds through Tue, then moderate to fresh winds will prevail through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Florida Panhandle. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico, and inland to Alabama and Georgia, and the Atlantic Ocean from 77W westward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. A surface trough is along 72W from 20N to 25N in the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N to 27N between 70W and 77W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A surface ridge is to the north of the area. A 1024 mb high pressure center is near 33N37W. A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 34N59W. The combined Bermuda and Azores high pressure centers are supporting light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, from 26N northward between 38W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 8 feet, are from 12N to 26N between 30W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 5 feet, are near the Canary Islands and the Cabo Verde Islands from 22N northward between the northwest African coast 38W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The subtropical ridge will sustain pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward and Mona Passages during the night hours. A surface trough, currently located NW of Hispaniola, will continue to move westward across the region tonight, reaching the central Bahamas on Mon, and approaching South Florida on Tue. Some increase in winds and seas is expected with the trough. $$ MT/ERA