000 AXNT20 KNHC 242314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jul 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 30W from 20N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 11N between 26W and 35W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 62W from 19N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted near this wave but no significant convection is noted at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from 21N southward across Honduras and Nicaragua, and moving west near 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 16N to 22N between 79W and 87W. Another tropical wave is near 95W from the southern Bay of Campeche at 20N southward across Mexico into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms exist at the western Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the Mauritania coast near 19N16W to a 1011 mb low near 13N33W to 11N46W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42W to north of Suriname near 07N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 19N and E of 29W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 12N between 38W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Gulf. Surface ridging extends south-southwestward from north of New Orleans to near Vera Cruz, Mexico. This feature is providing light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas over the north-central and central Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE to SSE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, the weak high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico, allowing gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail. Similar conditions are expected through the forecast period. The exception will remain near and to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours over the next few days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica. A surface trough near east of the Windward Passage is producing similar conditions near Hispaniola. Otherwise, an easterly trade- wind pattern persists across the entire basin. Moderate to locally fresh trades with 4 to 7 ft seas exist for the central basin, and waters south of Cuba. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient in the central Caribbean will support fresh to locally strong trades on Tue and moderate to fresh winds during the rest of the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are expected just E of the Leeward Islands through Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Atlantic Basin. The combined Bermuda and Azores Highs are supporting light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 26N between 38W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted off the NE Florida coast. To the south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found from 12N to 26N between 30W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are evident near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands north of 22N between the northwest African coast of 33W/38W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the expansive subtropical ridge will sustain fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward and Mona Passages during the night hours. A surface trough, currently located N of eastern Hispaniola, will continue to move westward across the region today, reaching the central Bahamas on Mon, and approaching South Florida on Tue. Some increase in winds and seas are expected in the wake of the trough. $$ AReinhart