000 AXNT20 KNHC 241754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jul 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 28W from 21N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 12N between 26W and 35W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Less Antilles near 56W from 19N southward into Suriname, and moving west near 20 kt. Scattered showers are present east of Windward Islands from 13N to 16N between 53W and 59W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found over central Guyana. This feature will bring a period of showers and possible thunderstorms to the Lesser Antilles tonight and Mon. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from 20N southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into Costa Rica, and moving west near 10 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring near the Island of Youth and north of the Gulf of Honduras, including the Yucatan coast. Another tropical wave is near 93W from the Bay of Campeche at 19N southward across Mexico into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms exist at the western Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott across 11N30W to 11N44W. Scattered showers are occurring north of the trough near the Cabo Verde Islands. Numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the coast of southern Mauritania, Senegal and Guinea Bissau. A short ITCZ runs from 08N40W to northeast of French Guiana at 06N50W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 140 nm south of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Gulf. Surface ridging extends south-southwestward from north of New Orleans to near Vera Cruz, Mexico. This feature is providing light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas over the north-central and central Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE to SSE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, the weak surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf of Mexico, supporting primarily gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas. This weather pattern is forecast to persist through the forecast period. The exception will be near and to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula, where fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours through the middle of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are triggering isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica. A surface trough near the Mona Passage is producing similar conditions near Hispaniola. Otherwise, an easterly trade- wind pattern persists across the entire basin. Moderate to locally fresh trades with 4 to 7 ft seas exist for the central basin, and waters south of Cuba. Gentle to moderate trades and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the strong subtropical high north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures over South America are keeping a tight pressure gradient. This will support fresh to locally strong trades in the central Caribbean on Tue and moderate to fresh winds during the rest of the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are forecast just east of the Leeward Islands through Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection in the Atlantic Basin. The combined Bermuda and Azores Highs are supporting light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 26N between 38W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast. To the south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found from 12N to 26N between 33W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 4 to 5 ft are evident near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands north of 22N between the northwest African coast of 33W/38W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge related to the Bermuda/Azores Highs will remain the dominant feature across the Atlantic forecast waters through the forecast period, supporting fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage during the night hours. A surface trough, currently located near the Mona Passage, will continue to move westward across the region today, likely reaching the central Bahamas on Mon, and approaching South Florida on Tue. Some increase in winds and seas are expected in the wake of the trough. $$ Chan