000
AXNT20 KNHC 232214
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jul 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W, south 
of 21N and moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed from 08N to 18N and E of 25W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W, south of
20N and moving W at 15 knots. No convection is associated with 
this wave as it remains embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan 
airmass.

A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of 19N 
and moving W at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection is present
from 17N to the coast of Cuba and between 75W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Mauritania near 19N16W to a 1010 mb low near 15N21W to 11N35W to 
09N49W. There is no ITCZ present at this time. Scattered moderate 
to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 18N between 17W
and 37W. 

GULF OF MEXICO...

The expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in primarily
light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft. However, 
the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the
tropics support moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds in the SE 
Gulf, including the Florida Straits, and north of the Yucatan. 
Seas are 2-4 ft in these waters. Numerous moderate to strong
convection is noted moving off the Florida west coast into the 
eastern Gulf, N of 24N and E of 88W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is moving north off the northern 
Yucatan coast, S of 23N between 92W and 87W. Scattered moderate 
convection is also seen in the western Bay of Campeche from 21N to
25N and W of 94W. There are areas in the north-central and 
northwest Gulf experiencing isolated thunderstorms. 

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward across 
Florida into the Gulf region. Under this weather pattern, mainly 
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. The 
exception will be near and to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula 
where fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early 
morning hours through the middle of the next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Showers and thunderstorms are affecting the waters off Yucatan 
and Belize, mainly W of 85W. Similar convection is present within 
90 nm of the coasts of Costa Rica and western Panama. The rest of 
the Caribbean enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. The broad
subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures 
in northern South America support fresh to strong easterly trade 
winds and seas of 7-9 ft in the south- central and portions of 
the SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds are also noted across the
Windward Passage. Fresh to locally strong winds are also noted in
the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere,
particularly in the lee of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Seas are 
3-6 ft in the NW and eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft in the 
remainder of the central and SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian 
low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-
central Caribbean through early Sun, then moderate to fresh winds 
will prevail through mid-week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds 
and slight to moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras 
much of the forecast period while moderate to fresh trades and 
moderate seas are forecast just E of the Leeward Islands through 
Tue. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic waters. 
There are some showers and thunderstorms noted off NE Florida. 
Outside of this, the influence of the Bermuda-Azores high and a 
dry airmass associated with Saharan dust maintain generally 
tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics. A weak 
surface trough is along 60W, from 19N to 25N, but only shallow 
patches of moisture are noted near this feature. Light to gentle
winds are noted N of 27N between 40W and 81W and S of 13N and E of
54W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail 
across the rest of the waters, with the highest seas near 21N to 
26N between 36W and 41W.

For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue 
to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the forecast 
period, leading to fresh to strong easterly winds north of 
Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage during the 
night hours. A surface trough, currently located near 60W, will 
continue to move westward across the region tonight, likely 
reaching the central Bahamas on Mon, and approaching South Florida
on Tue. Some increase in winds and seas are expected in the wake 
of the trough.

$$
AReinhart