000 AXNT20 KNHC 230532 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jul 23 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The Eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands: The strong surface pressure gradient, that exists between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure in N Africa, continues to support strong to near-gale force NNE winds with frequent gusts to gale force near the Canary Islands. The seas are rough, ranging from 8 feet to 9 feet. The general scenario consists of NE fresh-to-strong winds from 25N northward from 25W eastward. The sea heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 20N northward from 30W eastward. These conditions will persist through tonight or early on Saturday. Please, read the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 21N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 05N to 20N from 22W eastward. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W/80W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 12N to 19N between 81W and 86W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 88W/89W, from 19N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. This tropical wave is moving through the Yucatan Peninsula, beyond El Salvador, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm on either side of the tropical wave in Central America and in the coastal waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The Gambia near 13N37W, to 12N30W 10N37W 07N45W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is from 06N to 13N between 22W and 30W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 300 nm to the south of the remainder of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W Atlantic Ocean cyclonic circulation center, through central Florida, to 21N97W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong covers much of the area, on either side of the upper level trough. A surface ridge passes from the NW Bahamas to the north central and NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area near 19N96W at the coast of Mexico. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are from 90W eastward. Gentle to moderate winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are from 90W westward. The Atlantic Ocean ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf region. Under this weather pattern, expect moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds in the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds east of 90W. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is surrounded by comparatively drier air in subsidence, covers much of the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Bermuda- Azores High and lower pressure in Panama and Colombia, South America, continues to support fresh to locally strong trade winds and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the south central and the SW Caribbean Sea from 11N northward. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds continue elsewhere, with sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, between 74W in Colombia, and beyond northern Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. The Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area, and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea, will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south central basin into the weekend, then mainly fresh winds will prevail early next week. Moderate to fresh winds and slight seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras during much of the forecast period, while moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are forecast just E of the Lesser Antilles. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for information about the near-gale to gale force winds that are impacting the waters that are near the Canary Islands. An upper level trough extends from a 31N72W cyclonic circulation center, through central Florida, to 21N97W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow in the Atlantic Ocean, and in the southern half of Florida. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A surface ridge is along a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 33N60W, beyond the NW Bahamas. Moderate to fresh NE winds, and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet in NE swell, are from 20N northward from 40W eastward. Gentle to moderate E winds are from 20N northward from 40W westward. Locally fresh winds are from 20N to 27N between 50W and 65W. Fresh to strong winds are near the northern coast of Hispaniola. The sea heights range from 5 feet to 7 feet in the area of moderate to fresh or faster wind speeds. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. The trade winds are gentle to moderate from 20N southward. The exception is moderate to fresh winds from the monsoon trough southward. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet. The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic Ocean forecast waters through the forecast period. The pressure gradient between this high pressure system and tropical waves moving through the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds just north of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including in the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly through Sun. A surface trough is forecast to move westward across the forecast region beginning on Sat, likely reaching the central Bahamas on Mon. This system could bring some increase in winds and seas. $$ mt