000 AXNT20 KNHC 221754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jul 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands: The strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure across N Africa continues to support strong to near-gale force NNE winds with frequent gusts to gale force near the Canary Islands. Seas are rough, ranging from 8 to 9 ft. These conditions will persist through tonight or early Sat. Please read the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast, at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A newly analyzed tropical wave that just exited the coast of Africa is along 18W, from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Convection near the tropical wave is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 43W, from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is associated with the tropical wave at this time. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 77W, from 19N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. The tropical wave passage was captured on the 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding in Kingston, Jamaica. Scattered moderate convection is from the coast of Panama north to 12N between the coast of Colombia to 78W. The upper air sounding depicted weak instability and unsaturated conditions, which explains the lack of convection near the remainder of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 89W, from 19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. This tropical wave recently moved inland over Central America, as evidenced by the 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding from Belize City. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the W Caribbean, from 11N to 15N west of 81W, including inland over Nicaragua. Additional scattered moderate convection is noted in the W Gulf of Honduras and coastal regions of Belize. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 13N17W to 12N30W to 07N42W. The ITCZ is from 06N45W to the coast of Suriname near 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon trough is from 06N to 14N east of 25W and from 06N to 10N between 25W and 33W. No convection is associated with the ITCZ at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... The Bermuda-Azores High continues to extend a ridge SW across Florida and the Gulf, providing light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted of the coast of SW Florida. For the forecast, the current conditions will continue through early next week. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area combined with lower pressure in the region between Colombia and Panama continue to support fresh to locally strong trades and 5-7 ft seas in the south-central and SW Caribbean. Moderate trades continue elsewhere, with 3-5 ft seas. Please see the tropical waves section for a description of convection in the basin. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean into the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser Antilles into tonight. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for information about the near-gale to gale force winds and rough seas impacting the waters near the Canary Islands. Scattered moderate convection supported by upper level divergence is near the Turks and Caicos Islands, from the northern coast of Hispaniola to 23N between 68W and 72W. Elsewhere, surface ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the tropical Atlantic Ocean. North of 20N and east of 40W, moderate to fresh NE winds were detected on the latest scatterometer pass. Seas in this area are 7-9 ft as observed by satellite altimeter, in NE swell. North of 20N and west of 40W, E winds are gentle to moderate, except locally fresh near the northern coast of Hispaniola, with seas of 4-7 ft. South of 20N across the basin, trades are gentle to moderate and seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the forecast period. The pressure gradient between this high pressure system and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds just north of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly through the weekend. $$ Mahoney