000 AXNT20 KNHC 220552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jul 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The Eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands: ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C data from earlier today were indicating near-gale to gale force NNE winds between the Canary Islands. Surface observations on the coasts of the islands also were depicting strong to near-gale force NNE winds with higher gusts. The seas were rough in the areas of the comparatively fastest wind speeds. These conditions are expected to persist through tomorrow. Please, read the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/40W, from 18N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Any nearby precipitation is related to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W, from 19N southward, moving westward 15 knots. The precipitation that is close to Hispaniola is in the area of broad upper level cyclonic wind flow. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W, from 19N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: The precipitation that is close to the tropical wave is in the area of broad upper level cyclonic wind flow. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of The Gambia near 13N37W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 12N31W, to 07N42W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 540 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... The upper level cyclonic circulation center that was in the east central Gulf 24 hours ago, now is just off the coast of the north central Yucatan Peninsula. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and surrounding inland areas including Florida and parts of Central America from 14N northward from the Bahamas westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the coastal plains and the coastal waters of the western Yucatan Peninsula. Isolated moderate is elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface ridge extends from central Florida, into the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area near 20N96W at the coast of Mexico. Light to gentle return flow, and wave heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in most of the area. The exception is gentle to moderate winds, and wave heights that range from 3 feet to 4 feet, from 93W westward. The Atlantic Ocean ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the western periphery of the ridge and lower pressures in northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds in the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds east of 90W. Otherwise, fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and surrounding inland areas including Florida and parts of Central America from 14N northward from the Bahamas westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 73W westward. The surface pressure gradient, that is between the Bermuda- Azores High and lower pressure in South America, continues to induce fresh to locally strong trade winds in the central Caribbean Sea, and moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate trade winds are elsewhere. The wave heights range from 5 feet to 8 feet in the central Caribbean Sea, and locally to 8 feet offshore Colombia. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet elsewhere. An exception is wave heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet in the NW Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 10N/11N, between 74W in Colombia, and beyond northern Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 73W and 82W. The Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area, and lower pressure in the region between Colombia and Panama, will continue to support fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the south central Caribbean Sea into the early next week. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Sat night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are forecast across the remainder basin through the forecast period, except for fresh to strong winds in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola Sat night and Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for information about the near-gale to gale force winds that are impacting the waters that are near the Canary Islands. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 20N northward from 60W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 29N71W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the south of the line that runs from the NW Bahamas to 22N65W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A surface ridge is along a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 33N48W, to 31N63W 28N74W, beyond central Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE winds are from 21N northward between 20W and 30W. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge. Mainly moderate to fresh trade winds are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. The wave heights range from 4 feet to 7 feet in much of the area. The exception is for wave heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet from 25N northward from 65W westward. The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic Ocean forecast waters through the start of next week. The pressure gradient between this system and tropical waves moving through the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds just north of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly through the weekend. $$ mt