000 AXNT20 KNHC 212106 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jul 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic near the Canary Islands: Both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C data from earlier today indicated near-gale to gale force NNE winds between the Canary Islands. The latest surface observations on the coasts of the islands also depict strong to near-gale force NNE winds with higher gusts. Seas are rough within these high winds. These conditions are expected to persist through tomorrow. For more information, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for a description of the convection near this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 67W, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 18N to 21N between 64W and 72W, from near the Virgin Islands to across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and extends to 1009 mb low pressure near 11N33W, then to 07N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 420 nm south-southeast of the monsoon trough. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough in the E Gulf extends from 27N83W to 24N90W, with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms noted near the axis of the trough. Light to gentle return flow prevails across the basin, except gentle to moderate west of 93W, with 1 to 3 ft seas, except 3 to 4 ft west of 93W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Mainly fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure over South America continues to induce fresh to locally strong trades across the central Caribbean Sea and moderate to fresh across the eastern Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in the central Caribbean Sea, locally to 8 ft offshore Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, except 2 to 4 ft in the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers associated with the East Pacific Monsoon trough are noted in the southwestern Caribbean and inland over Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High located north of the area combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the south- central Caribbean into the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser Antilles into tonight, and then again during the upcoming weekend. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on near- gale to gale force winds impacting the waters near the Canary Islands. Outside of the Special Feature, a ridge axis, associated with the Bermuda-Azores high centered north of the area, extends from 31N46W to the Space Coast of Florida. Light to gentle winds are near the ridge axis, with mainly moderate to fresh trades elsewhere across the tropical Atlantic waters. Seas of 4 to 7 ft dominate the discussion waters, except 3 to 5 ft north of 25N and west of 65W. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the start of next week. The pressure gradient between this system and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly through the weekend. $$ Lewitsky