000 AXNT20 KNHC 211755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jul 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... E Atlantic near the Canary Islands: Both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C data from this morning indicates near-gale to gale force NNE winds between the Canary Islands. The latest surface observations on the coasts of the islands also depict strong to near-gale force NNE winds with higher gusts. Seas are rough within these high winds. These conditions are expected to persist through tomorrow. For more information, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Please see the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for a description of the convection near this wave. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 16N to 20N between 64W and 69W, mostly impacting eastern Puerto Rico. The previously analyzed W Caribbean tropical wave has moved inland over Central America and into the East Pacific. For further information on this tropical wave, please see the East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean at the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and extends to 1012 mb low pressure near 11N32W, then to 07N40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 30W and 40W and from 07N to 11N east of 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough in the E Gulf extends from 27N84W to 25N89W, with scattered showers noted near the eastern terminus of the trough. A weak surface trough is noted in the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle return flow prevails across the basin with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the western periphery of the ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the eastern half of the basin. Mainly fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure over South America continues to induce moderate trades across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, with seas of 4-7 ft. Trades are locally strong near the southern coast of Hispaniola and near the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia. Light to gentle trades are present in the western Caribbean with 2-4 ft seas. Scattered showers associated with the East Pacific Monsoon trough are noted in the southwestern Caribbean and inland over Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the south- central Caribbean into the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser Antilles into tonight. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on near- gale to gale force winds impacting the waters near the Canary Islands. Outside of the Special Feature, gentle to moderate NE to E winds continue across the tropical Atlantic, except locally fresh S of 18N and W of 50W. Seas of 4-7 ft persist across the discussion waters. This pattern is driven by the Bermuda-Azores high centered north of the area. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the start of next week. The pressure gradient between this system and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly through the weekend. $$ Colon-Burgos/Mahoney