076 AXNT20 KNHC 211230 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...UPDATED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jul 21 2022 Updated to add a Special Feature for Near-Gale to Gale Force Winds in the E Atlantic near the Canary Islands Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... E Atlantic near the Canary Islands: Data from the latest scatterometer pass around 1020 UTC has just arrived, and indicates near-gale to gale force NNE winds between the Canary Islands. Surface observations on the coasts of the islands also depict strong to near-gale force NNE winds with higher gusts. Seas are rough within these high winds. For more information, please see the High Seas Forecast issued by MeteoFrance at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 29W and 39W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is now just E of the Lesser Antilles, moving W at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the Virgin Islands and nearby islands. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is associated just with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes from Senegal to 12N28W to 07N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N49W to 10N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm S of the monsoon trough from 39N to 45W, E of 29W, as well as areas S of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak upper level low is noted on satellite imagery near 25N87W. No significant convection is associated with it. Closer to the surface, high pressure centered ENE of the basin dominates. Mainly moderate SE to S winds dominate the western third of the Gulf of Mexico, with mainly gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except for locally 4 ft in the western Gulf and Florida Straits. The pressure gradient between the western periphery of the Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the eastern half of the basin. Mainly fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection S of Cuba and in the vicinity of the Cayman Islands is associated with an upper level trough. The eastern extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough extends E along 10N into Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the coasts of Panama and Colombia in association with this trough. The surface pressure gradient between the central Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge and the comparatively lower surface pressures in the northern sections of South America is resulting in fresh to strong easterly trade winds,and wave heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet in the south central Caribbean Sea, strongest just offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet are in the rest of the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea and in the lee of Cuba. Light to gentle winds and wave heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are elsewhere. The Bermuda-Azores High combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south- central Caribbean into the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser Antilles into tonight. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure ridging along 30N is dominating weather for areas of the basin N of 20N, with mainly gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. On the western edge of this high, some moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are occurring W of 70W. Also, well to the east, fresh to strong NE winds are occurring in the vicinity of the Canary Islands and offshore Africa. Seas in this area are 6 to 8 ft. S of 20N, moderate to fresh trades dominate with seas of 5 to 7 ft. See the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for details on Atlantic convection. The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the start of next week. The pressure gradient between this system and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly through the weekend. $$ Konarik/Mahoney