000 AXNT20 KNHC 210549 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jul 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Any nearby precipitation is related to the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 58W/59W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Any nearby precipitation is related to the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is associated just with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Senegal and Mauritania, to 13N28W and 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to 10N58W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ from 43W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 32W and 36W, and elsewhere from 10N and the ITCZ southward. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 23N northward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N87W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 24N northward from 92W eastward. A surface ridge extends from the east central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area near 20N96W at the coast of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to light anticyclonic winds are in the rest of the basin. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 4 feet in the Florida Straits and in the western half of the area. The wave heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere. The Atlantic Ocean ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the western periphery of the ridge and lower pressures in northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds in the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the eastern half of the basin. Mainly fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 20N southward between 44W and 60W in the Atlantic Ocean. A tropical wave is along 58W/59W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the Atlantic Ocean just to the north of the eastern one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 12N to 20N between 60W and 70W. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia, and beyond Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. The surface pressure gradient, that is between the central Atlantic Ocean subtropical ridge and the comparatively lower surface pressures that are in the northern sections of South America, is resulting in fresh to strong easterly trade winds, and wave heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet, in the south central Caribbean Sea. An earlier scatterometer pass was showing the strongest winds to be off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 7 feet, are in the rest of the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea and in the lee of Cuba. Light to gentle winds, and wave heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are elsewhere. The Bermuda-Azores High, located N of the area and the Colombia/Panama low pressure center, will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser Antilles through Thu night. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes through 31N49W to 26N66W, to the waters that are between Andros Island in the Bahamas and SE Florida, to 26N87W in the Gulf of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 40W westward. Precipitation: rainshowers are in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A surface ridge is along 31N53W 29N69W, through central Florida, into the east central Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 22N northward from 22W eastward. Moderate to fresh winds are within 570 nm on either side of the line 27N25W 21N39W 17N56W. The wind speeds elsewhere are moderate or slower. The wave heights range from 6 feet to 8 feet from 20N northward from 20W eastward, and from 20N southward from 40W eastward. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic Ocean forecast waters into the start of next week. The pressure gradient between this system and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including in the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly, into the weekend. $$ mt/sk