000 AXNT20 KNHC 202312 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jul 21 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An E Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W, south of 20N and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. The disturbance is embedded in a large area of dry and dusty Saharan air that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W, south of 20N and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature. A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 84W, south of 20N and moving W at 10 kt. The interaction between the wave and the E Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly S of 11N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 05N45W. The ITCZ extends from 05N45W to 09N56W and then resumes from 09N58W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 06N to 12N and E of 30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered moderate convection prevails across the NE corner of the basin N of 27N and E of 90W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a broad area of high pressure centered over the central Atlantic, allowing for tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh SE-S winds are found in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf, primarily W of 90W, while gentle to light anticyclonic winds are noted in the rest of the basin. Seas of 3-4 ft are noted in the Florida Straits, Bay of Campeche and western Gulf, while seas of 1-3 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, little change in the marine conditions are expected into the weekend as a ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region. The pressure gradient between the western periphery of the ridge and lower pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds over the eastern half of the basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula due to a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for information on the convection in the SW Caribbean. Diurnal convection is noted over the Greater Antilles affecting the adjacent waters. There is also an area of scattered showers moving across the Lesser Antilles. The rest of the Caribbean enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions due to a dry airmass moving through the region. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic and lower pressures over northern South America result in fresh to strong easterly trades in the south-central Caribbean. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass, showing the strongest winds occurring off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 7-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are found in the rest of the central, eastern Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean to the end of the week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser Antilles through Thu night, and then again during the upcoming weekend. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Tropical Waves section for information on the waves moving across the basin. An extensive ridge dominates the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions outside of the deep tropics. This weather pattern is accentuated by a large area of dry and dusty Saharan air that is moving across the Atlantic and suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted NE of the Leeward Islands, especially from 14N to 23N and between 51W and 60W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Fresh to occasionally strong SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough, mainly between 20W and 30W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Farther north, fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds are observed N of 22N and E of 22W, with the strongest winds occurring in the water passages in the Canary Islands and near the coast of Morocco and Western Sahara. Seas are 6-8 ft in the waters described. In the rest of the basin, occasionally moderate to fresh winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores high will continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the weekend. The pressure gradient between this system and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly into Sun. $$ ERA