000 AXNT20 KNHC 200536 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jul 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The METEO-FRANCE outlook for the 24 hours that follow the initial forecast period, consists of the following: the persistence or threat of Northeast near gale or gale in the CANARIAS area. Please, refer to the following website for more details: http://weather.gmdss.org/bulletins/METAREA2.HIGH_SEAS_FORECAST.19 34.1919341915391.html. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W/30W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. The position of this wave was changed in order to agree with the current data. A 1012 mb low pressure center is along the wave near 10N. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere, from 20N southward between 20W and 36W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W, from 17N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N to 17N between 50W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. This tropical wave is moving through the area that is to the south of Cuba. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is associated just with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 16N17W, to 10N along the 29W/30W tropical wave, to 06N36W. The ITCZ continues from 06N36W, to 05N48W 09N54W 10N59W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is inland in Africa within 360 nm to the south of the monsoon trough between 11W and 15W; and from 05N to 07N between 35W and 37W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 300 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 17N northward between 58W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico, including in the Caribbean Sea. Weakening but lingering and weak rainshowers are from 27N northward from 90W eastward. A surface ridge passes through 29N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico and the coast of Mexico near 23N98W. Gentle winds are in the central and NE Gulf. Moderate S winds are in the far western Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE to E winds are off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The wave heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet. The exception is as high as 4 feet off the coast of Texas and off the Yucatan Peninsula. Little change in the marine conditions is expected during the remainder of the week, as a ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. The exception will be near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula, where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours, due to a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 17N northward between 58W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico, including in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N northward from 70W westward, including from Hispaniola to Cuba and Jamaica, and in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. An upper level inverted trough is along 65W/66W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 18N southward from 70W eastward. Fresh to strong NE to E trade winds, and wave heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet, are in the south central Caribbean Sea. The comparatively fastest wind speeds are offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. The comparatively highest wave heights are offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds, and wave heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are elsewhere. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia, and beyond southern Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 13N southward from 74W westward. The Bermuda-Azores High, located N of the area, and the Colombian/Panama lower surface pressures, will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south central Caribbean Sea through late week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser Antilles into Thu. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 17N northward between 58W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico, including in the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A surface ridge is along a 1026 mb high pressure center that is near 33N46W, 31N54W 29N80W. Moderate to fresh winds are within 270 nm to 570 nm on either side of the line 30N18W 26N24W 22N29W 17N48W 18N60W. The wind speeds elsewhere are moderate or slower. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet from 27N southward from 35W eastward. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet elsewhere. The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic Ocean forecast waters into the weekend, as it is normal for this time of the year. The pressure gradient between this system and the tropical waves that are moving across the Caribbean Sea, will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the in the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly through Fri night. $$ mt/ja