641 AXNT20 KNHC 192322 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jul 20 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A large and broad tropical wave has its axis along 25W and south of 20N. The disturbance is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 10N between 25W and 30W, and from 09N to 15N between 16W and 23W. Dry and dusty Saharan air envelops the wave N of 10N and west of 23W, suppressing the development of deep convection. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 51W, south of 20N, and moving W around 20 kt. A few weak showers are noted near the wave axis, but deep convection is being suppressed by a large area of dry Saharan air. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 79W, south of 20N, extending through Panama and into the E Pacific. The wave is moving W around 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature over water, but strong thunderstorms are over Panama, related to afternoon heating. Some thunderstorms are also along the south coast of Cuba and over Jamaica, due to afternoon heating. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to a 1010 mb low pressure near 13N25W to 09N28W to 07N39W. The ITCZ extends from 07N39W to 06N50W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N52W to Trinidad. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm S of the monsoon trough axis between 30W and 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface ridging oriented east-west extends across the central Gulf of Mexico, leading to gentle winds across the central and NE Gulf. Moderate S winds are evident over the far western Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds are off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 1-3 ft across the basin, except as high as 4 ft off the coast of Texas and off the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms are occurring inland over portions of northern Florida due to afternoon heating, and an isolated shower or thunderstorm is drifting over the NE Gulf from time to time. The remainder of the Gulf waters are not experiencing any significant precipitation at this time. Little change in the marine conditions are expected the remainder of the work week as a ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region. Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail, except near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours due to a thermal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1025 mb high pressure centered north of the area near 32N46W and lower pressures over northern South America support fresh to strong NE to E trades across the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas in the area described are 7-9 ft. The strongest winds are found offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. The highest seas are offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trades are prevalent elsewhere in the basin with seas of 4-6 ft. No major precipitation areas are seen over water at this time, but scattered thunderstorms are noted over Central America, due to afternoon heating and a tropical wave passing through the area. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area combined with the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean into late week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are forecast across the waters near the Lesser Antilles through Thu. Similar wind speeds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each night through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge extends from a 1025 mb high pressure near 32N46W west-southwestward to 29N65W to South Florida near 26N80W. Gentle or weaker winds are near the ridge axis. The ridge is maintaining generally tranquil weather conditions. This is also accentuated by a large area of dry and dusty Saharan air that is traversing the Atlantic and suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are occurring from 11N to 25N and between 35W and 78W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Fresh to near gale force N to NE winds are likely occurring near the Canary Islands and off the coasts of Morocco and Western Sahara. Seas there are 7-9 ft. Fresh SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough, from 03N-10N between 15W-31W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through late week. The pressure gradient between this system and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly through at least Fri. For the forecast east of 55W, strong to near gale force N to NE winds will continue to affect the waters near the Canary Islands and off the coasts of Western Sahara and Morocco through Thu night, with seas of 8-9 ft in the region. $$ Hagen