000 AXNT20 KNHC 171609 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jul 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave axis is near 39W from 19N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 330 nm either side of the wave axis from 06N to 13N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 63W S of 17N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm W of the wave axis from 10N-15N, and within 300 nm E of the wave axis from 09N-13.5N, including in the vicinity of Trinidad and the southern Windward Islands. A central Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 76W south of 19N, moving W at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 15 .5N-17N between 72W-76.5W. Additional showers are noted from 08N- 12N between 75W-79W, where the wave intersects the east Pacific monsoon trough. A western Caribbean tropical wave axis is near 84W from 19N southward to the coast of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and into the east Pacific, and is moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted within 150 nm E of the wave axis from 17N-20N. Scattered moderate convection is south of 11N and west of 80.5W, just offshore western Panama and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to 12N22W to 09N42W. The ITCZ continues from 09N42W to 08N49W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N-09N between 13W-22W and from 08N-11N between 55W-59W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough axis extends from the western Florida Panhandle south-southwestward to the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is analyzed from the Florida Big Bend near 30N83W to 23N88W. These features are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 25N and east of 86W. Elsewhere, isolated showers and tstorms are occurring over portions of the southwestern Gulf and offshore south-central Louisiana. Surface ridging prevails over the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb high pressure near 28N91W. The basin is experiencing light to gentle wind speeds and 1 to 2 ft seas. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region this week. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, where seas are 6-8 ft. Gentle SE winds are occurring in the NW basin, with 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will lead to fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean into the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level diffluent pattern and ample atmospheric moisture are sustaining numerous moderate isolated strong convection north of 25N between 77W and the east coast of Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted elsewhere north of 23N and west of 71.5W. The remainder of the Atlantic is free of significant precipitation areas. Moderate S winds prevail north of 25N and west of 70W, except stronger from 27N-29N between 78.5W-80.5W, where strong convection prevails. Fresh SE winds prevail south of 25N and west of 70W, except for strong E winds between the N coast of Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. An east-west oriented subtropical ridge is along 32N between 35W- 70W. As a result, gentle to moderate trades prevail north of 25N along with seas of 3-5 ft. A recent ASCAT satellite data pass shows moderate to fresh NE-E trades from the ITCZ to 24N between 35W-62W, where seas are 5-7 ft. In the far E Atlantic off the coast of Western Sahara, fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 7-9 ft are occurring. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the region west of 55W early this week. The pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Wed. In the eastern Atlantic, strong N to NE winds will continue from 18N-28N between 25W and the coast of Africa through Mon. $$ Hagen