000 AXNT20 KNHC 170900 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jul 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 39W from 19N southward, and moving west at 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 10N between 36W and 40W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is now approaching the Lesser Antilles S of 17N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of Trinidad and Tobago. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 74W from Haiti to Colombia, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of Hispaniola and near the Colombia-Venezuela border. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from just W of the Cayman Islands southward across western Panama into the East Pacific Ocean, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Panama-Colombia border. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes from the Senegal Mauritania border to 13N20W to 10N32W. Convection previously associated with this trough has diminished. An ITCZ continues from 09N36W to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 90 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough and associated surface stretching southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf is supporting scattered moderate convection near New Orleans and over northern Florida. Otherwise, a modest 1015 mb high centered S of Louisiana is dominating much of the region with mainly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region through early week. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours due to local effects. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Tightening gradient between the Atlantic ridge related to the Azores High and the Colombian Low is sustaining ENE to ESE trade winds across the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present at the south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted over the southwestern basin, while gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist for the northwestern basin. Mostly fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will lead to fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean into the middle of the week. Fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening upper-level low over the NW Bahamas is continuing to generate scattered moderate convection from western Cuba across the central and NW Bahamas as well as offshore Florida. A surface trough that extends from 31N55W to 27N59W is producing scattered moderate convection along its axis. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda and Azores Highs continue to provide light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 26N between 27W and 67W. Farther west and south, gentle to moderate E to SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident from the Greater Antilles northward to 31N between 67W and the Georgia/Florida coast; while gentle to moderate ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist from 09N to 26N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles/67W. Moderate with locally fresh NNE to NE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found near the Canary Islands north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 27W. Outside the convection near the tropical wave, light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the forecast region early this week. The pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, through Mon night. $$ Konarik