000 AXNT20 KNHC 170545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jul 17 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 37W from 19N southward, and moving west at 20 to 25 knots. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 07N to 09N between 36W and 39W. Latest satellite scatterometer and altimeter data reveal locally moderate to fresh winds and 6 to 8 ft seas near this convection. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W from 17N southward across Barbados into Guyana, and moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near Trinidad and Tobago, and over northern Guyana. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 72W from near the Haiti-Dominican Republic border southward to northwestern Venezuela, and moving westward near 15 knots. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring just south of Hispaniola and near the Colombia-Venezuela border. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 79W from near the Cayman Islands southward across central Panama into the East Pacific Ocean, and moving westward near 15 knots. Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are noted near the Panama-Colombia border. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough passes through the Senegal coast near Dakar across 13N20W to 10N28W. Scattered showers are evident south of the trough from 07N to 10N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 24W. An ITCZ continues from 10N28W to 09N35W, then from 08N38W to 09N54W. Scattered moderate convection is found up to 90 nm along either side of both ITCZ segments. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough stretching southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the central Gulf is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near New Orleans and over northern Florida. A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms over the northeastern and east-central Gulf. Otherwise, a modest 1015 mb high over the north-central Gulf and its associated surface ridge are dominating much of the region with gentle to moderate easterly winds and 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, the aforementioned high and related ridge will continue to dominate the region through early next week. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours due to local effects. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Tightening gradient between the Atlantic ridge related to the Azores High and the Colombian Low is sustaining ENE to ESE trade winds across the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present at the south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted over the southwestern basin, while gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist for the northwestern basin. Mostly fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean will persist into the middle of next week. Fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles into Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A persistent upper-level low over the Great Bahama Bank continues to generate scattered showers and thunderstorms from the north shore of western Cuba northward across the central/northwest Bahamas to the offshore waters of Florida. At the central Atlantic, a surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms southeast of Bermuda. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda and Azores Highs together, continue to provide light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 26N between 27W and 67W. Farther west and south, gentle to moderate E to SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are evident from the Greater Antilles northward to 31N between 67W and the Georgia/Florida coast; while gentle to moderate ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist from 09N to 26N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles/67W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NNE to NE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found near the Canary Islands north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 27W. Outside the convection near the tropical wave, light to gentle winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge associated with both the Bermuda and Azores Highs will continue to dominate the forecast region during the next several days. The pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, into Mon night. $$ Chan