000 AXNT20 KNHC 161755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jul 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 32W, from 19N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: most if not all the precipitation is comparatively more related to the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W/57W, from 17N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 330 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 15N southward. Isolated moderate is between 50W and the tropical wave from 15N southward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W from 21N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical, and within 90 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 15N southward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. This tropical wave is moving through the area of the Windward Passage, SE Cuba, and Jamaica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N to 21N between 73W and SW Haiti and 82W and the Cayman Islands. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia, and beyond southern Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, to 09N20W 09N33W 08N36W. The ITCZ continues from 08N36W, to 08N44W 09N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and within 90 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through the Florida Big Bend, into the north central Gulf of Mexico, westward in the direction of the Texas coast. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 21N northward. A surface ridge passes through the Florida Panhandle, through southern Louisiana, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico and the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Fresh NE winds are to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Mainly gentle winds are elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 3 feet elsewhere. A ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region into early next week, producing mainly gentle winds with the exception of gentle to moderate SE to S winds across the NW and west-central waters. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected in the western Gulf for the latter half of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 68W from 21N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the west of the tropical, and within 90 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from 15N southward. A tropical wave is along 76W/77W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. This tropical wave is moving through the area of the Windward Passage, SE Cuba, and Jamaica. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 17N to 21N between 73W and SW Haiti and 82W and the Cayman Islands. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia, and beyond southern Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in satellite imagery. A NE to ENE trade wind regime spans the entire Caribbean Sea. Fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 7 feet, are in the south central Caribbean Sea to the north of Colombia. Mainly gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, are in the NW corner and near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica coastline. Moderate to fresh winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are in the remainder of the basin. The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will lead to fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through early next week. Fresh trade winds and seas in the 6 to 9 ft range in NE swell are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through tonight. The aerial extent of the trades will increase across the Caribbean waters early on Sun as high pressure N of the area strengthens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is on top of the Bahamas near 24N77W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from parts of the NW Caribbean Sea including Cuba northward, between 70W and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. The southernmost part of a cold front is near 31N57W. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, and weakening but still lingering rainshowers are from 27N northward between 55W and 62W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the area from 20N northward. One 1025 mb high pressure center is near 33N42W. A second 1025 mb high pressure center is near 32N62W. Light to gentle winds, and sea heights that range from 3 feet to 5 feet, are from 27N northward between 35W and 65W. Gentle SE winds and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are from 27N northward between 65W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are from 10N to 27N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles; and from the Greater Antilles to 27N between 65W and the southern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trade winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 6 feet, are from 13N northward from 35W eastward. Light to gentle winds, that include locally moderate SE and monsoonal winds, and sea heights that range from 5 feet to 7 feet in southerly swell, cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. The southernmost part of a cold front is near 31N57W. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, and weakening but still lingering rainshowers are from 27N northward between 55W and 62W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is in the area from 20N northward. One 1025 mb high pressure center is near 33N42W. A second 1025 mb high pressure center is near 32N62W. The Atlantic ridge dominating weather through the basin is currently centered near Bermuda and will drift E this weekend. This will allow trades to expand north, with pulses of strong winds impacting areas N of Hispaniola each night through Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. $$ mt