000 AXNT20 KNHC 160559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jul 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is just west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 28W from 19N southward, and moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 09N between 25W and 34W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 16N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 51W and 59W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 63W from 21N southward across Anguilla and St. Martin to northeastern Venezuela, and moving west near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near the ABC Islands and over northeastern Venezuela. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from western Haiti southward to near the Venezuela-Colombia border, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen over Haiti and northern Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near Dakar across 10N23W to 08N36W. Scattered moderate convection is found near and south of the trough from 07N to 10N between the central African coast and 24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N36W to 07N42W, then northwestward to 11N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 90 nm along either side of this feature. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A robust upper-level trough across the northern Gulf and northern Florida is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms from near New Orleans eastward across the Florida Big Bend to near the Georgia/Florida border. An upper-level low over the Yucatan Peninsula is coupling with convergent fresh to strong northeast surface winds to generate similar conditions at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas range from 3 to 5 ft across the entire Bay of Campeche. A weak 1018 mb high over the central Gulf is providing light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas for the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge related to the 1018 mb high will continue to dominate the Gulf region through early next week, producing mainly gentle winds with the exception of gentle to moderate SE to S winds across the northwestern and west-central Gulf. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will support nightly pulses of fresh to locally strong NE winds to the west of the peninsula this weekend. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the western Gulf for the latter half of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for weather in the Caribbean Sea. A NE to ENE trade-wind regime continues over the entire Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds along with 6 to 7 ft seas persist in the south-central Caribbean, north of Colombia. Mainly gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft are present for the northwestern basin and near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica coastline. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low will lead to fresh with locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through early next week. Fresh trade winds and seas at the 6 to 9 ft in NE swell are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles into Sun. The aerial extent of fresh to strong trades will increase across the Caribbean waters early on Sun as high pressure north of the area strengthens. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) over the northwest Bahamas along with its induced surface trough nearby, continue to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the northern shore of Cuba northward across the Bahamas to offshore of northern Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. An elongated 1025 mb high over the north-central Atlantic is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft seas north of 27N between 35W and 65W. Farther west, gentle SE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are present north of 27N between 65W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast. To the south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and 6 to 8 ft seas exist from 10N to 27N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles; and also from the Greater Antilles to 27N between 65W and the southern Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NNE to NE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen near the Canary Islands, north of 13N between the northwest African coast and 35W. Light to gentle with locally moderate SE and monsoonal winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the elongated high will drift eastward this weekend. This will allow trades to expand north, with pulses of strong winds impacting areas north of Hispaniola each night into Mon. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over the southwestern Atlantic, including the Bahamas through the weekend, as the TUTT sustains instability. $$ Chan