000 AXNT20 KNHC 151754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jul 15 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 26W, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 10N between 22W and 28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 49W from 16N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave at this time. An Atlantic tropical wave is just east of the Lesser Antilles along 60W, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the Windward Islands and in the SE Caribbean, from 10N to 12N between 61W and 65W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W, extending from central Dominican Republic to western Venezuela and eastern Colombia, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Convection present overnight and early this morning has dissipated. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau to 07N35W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between the central African coast and 22W. Another area of scattered moderate convection, associated with he monsoon trough is found south of 10N between 30W and 34W. The ITCZ meets the monsoon trough at 07N35W and continues until 06N47W. Showers are noted north of the ITCZ, along 10N. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging associated with the subtropical Atlantic high is producing fair weather in the central Gulf. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the NE Gulf. A line of scattered showers and t-storms associated with a upper-level trough are noted 120nm off the coast of Mexico and Texas. Winds in the western Gulf are from the SE and gentle to moderate, with 2-4 ft seas. Elsewhere, easterly winds dominate and are gentle with 1-2 ft seas. For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered in the northern Gulf will dominate through the weekend, creating gentle winds across much of the basin. A surface trough over the Yucatan Peninsula will support nightly pulses of fresh NE winds to the west of the Peninsula during this period. Southerly winds will increase to moderate speeds over the far western Gulf early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NE to ENE trade-wind regime continues over the entire Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh winds persist in the south-central Caribbean, with 6-7 ft seas. In the north-central Caribbean, trades are mainly moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the E Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the W Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low to the south will lead to fresh to locally strong winds in the south-central Caribbean into the start of next week, with fresh to strong winds also in waters E of the Lesser Antilles Fri night and Sat. Large NE to E swell will impact the tropical Atlantic Ocean zones through Sun, then subside Sun night into Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... At 1500 UTC a surface trough is analyzed between Florida and the Bahamas from 27N79W to 25N79W. This surface trough is located under a broad Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) centered over the northwest Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection associated with these features is impacting the central Bahamas. North of 20N and west of 40W, gentle to moderate trade winds dominate the area, with seas of 4-7 ft. South of 20N, west of 40W, moderate to fresh E winds prevail, with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate NE winds dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic east of 40W, with seas of 5-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the high pressure that extends from E of Bermuda to offshore Florida will slowly shift NE through the weekend. This will allow trades to expand northward, and pulses of strong winds will impact areas north of Hispaniola each night through the weekend. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue over most of the western part of area, including the Bahamas, through the weekend, as an upper-level low creates additional instability. $$ Mahoney/Colon-Burgos