000 AXNT20 KNHC 132252 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jul 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with axis extending along 35W from 03N-14N. Satellite imagery depicts the typical inverted V cloud pattern between 31W-40W, and model diagnostics also predict the presence of the wave in this area. Scattered showers are noted from 09N-12N between 34W-38W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 44W from 19N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is related to this wave at this time. An Atlantic tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles with axis along 59W, from 19N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A W Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W, from 19N southward, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama S of 14N and W of 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 13N17W to 11N26W. The ITCZ continues from 11N26W to 10N32W. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 16N and W of 26W. GULF OF MEXICO... The basin is dominated by the westward extension of the subtropical ridge, which is maintaining gentle to moderate return flow across the basin. Subtle low-level convergence in the northwest and north-central Gulf is producing some isolated showers and tstorms. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf, except 2-4 ft in the south-central Gulf and E Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, weak high pressure building across the basin will maintain relatively quiet conditions through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave affecting the far western Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong trades impacting the central Caribbean were detected by the latest scatterometer pass, a result of the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and lower pressure over South America. Seas of 8-10 ft prevail from 11N to 16N between 73W and 81W, associated with the fresh to locally strong winds. In the E and SW Caribbean, trades are moderate and seas are 4-7 ft. In the NW Caribbean, trades are moderate and seas are 3-6 ft. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to near gale trades over the south-central Caribbean through tonight. The high will weaken Thu allowing for the tradewinds to diminish to fresh to strong through Sat, followed by a resumption of strong to near gale conditions Sun and Mon. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Thu night before diminishing. Large NE to E swell is anticipated to begin impacting the tropical Atlantic zones Thu night, continuing through Sun, then diminishing again on Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical ridge centered north of the area. Latest ASCAT data indicated a secondary 1023 mb high pressure center was located near 28N67W. A weak surface trough is located from 27N61W to 24N64W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is north of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh trades south of 20N. Seas are 3-5 ft in the W Atlantic west of 65W. Elsewhere in the discussion waters, seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge extending from 30N55W to 29N70W and to central Florida will gradually shift northward during the next couple days. As the pressure gradient increases, the E trades south of 25N should strengthen to fresh to strong from tonight through the weekend. Large E swell will impact the waters south of 22N from Thu night through Sat before diminishing again Sun. $$ ERA