000 AXNT20 KNHC 131754 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jul 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 19N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 13N between 32W and 35W. An Atlantic tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is along 57W, from 20N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A W Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W, from 18N southward, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 12N and west of 77W to the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 12N17W to 11N26W. The ITCZ continues from 11N26W to 09N34W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 11N between 18W and 23W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to 13N within 50 nm of the coast of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf of Mexico is dominated by the westward extension of the subtropical ridge, which is maintaining gentle to moderate return flow across the basin. Subtle low-level convergence in the northwest and north-central Gulf is producing some isolated showers and tstorms. Seas are 1-3 ft across the Gulf, except 2-4 ft in the south-central Gulf and E Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a surface trough along the N Gulf coast is dissipating, while scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may continue over the N Gulf through Thu. Weak high pressure building over the area will maintain relatively quiet conditions through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong trades impacting the central Caribbean were detected by the latest scatterometer pass, a result of the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and lower pressure over South America. A satellite altimeter pass from this morning indicated seas of 8-10 ft within an area from 11N to 16N between 73W and 81W, associated with the fresh to locally strong winds. In the E and SW Caribbean, trades are moderate and seas are 4-7 ft. In the NW Caribbean, trades are moderate and seas are 3-6 ft. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to near gale trades over the south-central Caribbean through tonight. The high will weaken Thu allowing for the tradewinds to diminish to fresh to strong through the end of the week. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds in the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Thu night before diminishing. Large NE to E swell is anticipated to begin impacting the tropical Atlantic zones Thu night and continue through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Aside from the tropical waves, the tropical Atlantic is dominated by the subtropical ridge centered north of the area. ASCAT data from around 1400 UTC indicated a secondary 1022 mb high pressure center was located near 28N66W. A weak surface trough is located from 27N61W to 22N65W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is north of 20N, with moderate to locally fresh trades south of 20N. Seas are 3-5 ft in the W Atlantic west of 65W. Elsewhere in the discussion waters, seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge extending from 30N55W to 28N70W and to South Florida will gradually shift northward during the next few days. As the pressure gradient increases, the E trades south of 25N should strengthen to fresh from Wed night through the end of the week. Large E swell will impact the waters zones south of 22N from Thu night through Sat. $$ Mahoney