000 AXNT20 KNHC 122329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jul 13 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 32W from 21N southward, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 12N, between 27W and 34W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along from 51W from 20N southward, moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 79W from 18N southward into the eastern Pacific, moving west at 10 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are noted from 13N to 18N between 79W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N16W to 11N27W to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N52W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 15W and 50W. No significant convection is occurring around the ITCZ at this time. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean from 11N75W to the coast of Costa Rica near 10N83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 12N between 78W and 83W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge dominates the pattern in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends off the SE coast of Louisiana causing numerous moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms in the north-central Gulf, N of 23N between 85W and 95W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the majority of the basin, with fresh SW winds in the northeast Gulf. Seas are 4-6 ft in the NE Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the N Gulf of Mexico are associated with a broad area of low pressure. This system is expected to meander near the N Gulf coast through the end of the week, and gradual development is possible if it remains offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue in the area for at least the next couple of days. Elsewhere winds and seas should remain quiescent through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is producing strong easterly winds in the central Caribbean where seas are 6-8 ft. In the eastern Caribbean, easterly winds are moderate to fresh with 4-6 ft seas. In the NW Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate from the E-SE with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to near gale E trades over the S central Caribbean today and tomorrow. By Thu as the high weakens, the trades should diminish to fresh to strong through the end of the week. Fresh to strong E to SE trades over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Thu night before diminishing. Large NE to E swell is anticipated to begin impacting the tropical Atlantic zones Thu night and continue through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 mb high south of the Azores is the main feature in the Atlantic Ocean. A ridge extends from the aforementioned high along 27W in the western Atlantic. North of the ridge, winds are moderate from the SW with 4-6 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. South of 20N, easterly winds are moderate to fresh with 6-8 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, winds are generally moderate to fresh from the east with moderate seas. In the eastern Atlantic, N-NE winds are moderate to fresh with 6-9 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending along 27N this morning should gradually shift northward during the next few days. As the pressure gradient increases, the E trades south of 25N should strengthen to fresh from Wed night through the end of the week. Large E swell will impact the zones south of 22N from Thu night through the end of the week. $$ AReinhart