000 AXNT20 KNHC 121630 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jul 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 12W from 05N to 19N, moving west at 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 11N, between 24W and 33W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along from 50W from 06N to 20N. moving west at 15 kt. Scattered weak convection is noted south of the wave axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends from Jamaica to eastern Panama along 77W, from 06N to 18N, moving west at 17 kt. No significant convection is associated with the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W to 06N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N51W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection associated with the monsoon through is observed from 06N to 11N, between 24W and 33W. Convection along the ITCZ is isolated and weak. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends across the SW Caribbean, with scattered moderate convection observed within 120 nm of Costa Rica. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge dominates the pattern in the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends off the SE coast of Louisiana causing numerous moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms in the north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate southerly winds dominate the majority of the basin, with fresh SW winds in the northeast Gulf. Seas are 3-5 ft in the NE Gulf and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the trough of low pressure in the northern Gulf is expected to meander near the N Gulf coast through the end of the week, and gradual development is possible if it remains offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue in the area for at least the next couple of days. Elsewhere winds and seas should remain quiescent through the end of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Azores High and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is producing strong easterly winds in the central Caribbean where seas are 6-8 ft. In the eastern Caribbean, easterly winds are moderate to fresh with 4-6 ft seas. In the NW Caribbean, winds are gentle to moderate from the E-SE with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the Bermuda-Azores High will maintain strong to near gale E trades over the central Caribbean today and tomorrow. By Thu as the high weakens, the trades should diminish to fresh to strong through the end of the week. Fresh to strong E to SE trades over the Gulf of Honduras will continue through Thu night before diminishing. Large NE to E swell is anticipated to begin impacting the tropical Atlantic zones Thu night and continue through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 mb high south of the Azores is the main feature in the Atlantic Ocean. A ridge extends from the aforementioned high along 28W in the western Atlantic. North of the ridge, winds are moderate from the SW with 4-6 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. South of 20N, easterly winds are moderate to fresh with 6-8 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, winds are generally moderate from the east with moderate seas. In the eastern Atlantic, N-NE winds are moderate to fresh with 6-9 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending along 27N this morning should gradually shift northward during the next few days. As the pressure gradient increases, the E trades south of 25N should strengthen to fresh from Wed night through the end of the week. Large E swell will impact the zones south of 22N from Thu night through the end of the week. $$ Colon-Burgos/Flynn