000 AXNT20 KNHC 120502 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jul 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 23/24W from 18N southward through the Cabo Verde Islands to 04N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 330 nm W and within 210 nm E of the wave axis from 05.5N to 12N. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 46/47W from 06N- 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Dry Saharan air is preventing any convection north of 08N, but scattered moderate convection is noted near the wave axis south of 08N. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 74W from 17N southward to central Colombia, moving W at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time with this feature. The western Caribbean tropical wave has moved inland over Central America. It extends along 89W from 19N southward to the east Pacific Ocean, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is observed over western Honduras, eastern Guatemala and El Salvador. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of The Gambia near 12N17W to 09N24W to 11N31W to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N49W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 13W and 19W, and from 05N to 11N between 35W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough near southeastern Louisiana is inducing scattered showers and isolated tstorms over the north-central Gulf. A weak ridge oriented east-west along 24/25N continues to dominate the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, supporting gentle to moderate S-SW winds across the north-central and northeast Gulf. ASCAT shows gentle to moderate east winds over the south- central Gulf. Recent buoy and platform observations are reporting fresh S winds over the far western Gulf, west of 96W. Seas are 2 to 3 ft across the basin, with locally 4 ft seas possible in the fresh winds over the far western Gulf. For the forecast, the weak high pressure over the central Gulf E of 90W will begin to shift northward on Wed. The weak surface trough near southeastern Louisiana is expected to linger in the vicinity of the north-central Gulf through Fri. Instability created by this feature along with that of a nearby upper-level trough should allow for very active weather impacting most of the central and NE Gulf waters through the rest of the week. Low pressure may develop from the surface trough later in the week, and this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Light to gentle winds are expected across the Gulf on Fri, except near the surface trough and over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan peninsula at night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large upper-level low is centered near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. However, a large outbreak of dry Saharan air is covering the eastern half of the Caribbean, limiting showers east of 76W. The only area of showers east of 76W is noted in the southeastern Caribbean, south of 14N and east of 66W, where broken clouds with isolated showers are present. Farther west, isolated showers and tstorms are noted over the NW Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and south of Cuba, enhanced by an upper-level trough that extends from Tampa Bay, FL south-southwestward to Belize. In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in association with the east Pacific monsoon trough south of 12N between 78W-81W. Recent ASCAT satellite data shows strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea offshore northeast Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh trades are noted elsewhere east of 80W from 10N-18N. Mainly moderate trades prevail elsewhere, except for fresh in the Gulf of Honduras, and gentle south of Cuba. Seas are 6-8 ft in the south- central Caribbean, 4-6 ft elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure over the north-central Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, and fresh to strong trade winds in the central portion of Caribbean through early Thu. The fresh to strong trade winds in the central portion will diminish in coverage by Thu evening and change little through Sat night. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds in the northwestern Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue, then diminish to gentle winds on Fri. East winds in the Gulf of Honduras will increase to strong on Tue night and continue to pulse at night through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough extending from Tampa Bay, Florida to Belize is inducing isolated showers and tstorms over the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida. Another upper-level low is located near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but dry Saharan air is preventing any showers from developing in the area. Elsewhere, the subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the Atlantic. The subtropical ridge axis extends west-southwestward from a 1029 mb high pressure near 37N33W to 31N53W to 27N65W to the Florida Keys. Gentle to moderate wind speeds are present across the entire area north of 20N and west of 50W, with seas of 4-6 ft. ASCAT shows fresh to strong NE winds east of 35W and north of 20N, where seas are likely 7 to 10 ft. In the tropical Atlantic, fresh NE to E trades and 6-8 ft seas are from 10N-20N between 35W-60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure ridge will build westward on Tue, then begin to lift northward on Wed, reaching near 30N on Thu and to N of 31N Fri allowing for moderate to fresh south to southwest winds over the waters east of NE Florida to become light to gentle southeast to south winds Fri through Sat night. Moderate to fresh east winds will continue south of 25N through the next few days, except between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, where winds will be fresh to strong at night. $$ Hagen