000 AXNT20 KNHC 112314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jul 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 22W from 18N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 20W and 23W. An central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 45W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time with this feature. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 72W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time with this feature. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 85W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 16N to 19N, between 81W and 87W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 09N23W to 11N31W to 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N49W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 14W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate S-SW winds across the majority of the basin. A surface trough is analyzed in the north-central Gulf from 26N90W to the Alabama coast near 30N88W. Scattered moderate convection associated with this trough is observed from 23N to 30N between 83W and 93W. Buoys and altimeter data confirm seas are 2-4 ft throughout the Gulf. For the forecast, weak surface ridging prevails over the area, while a surface trough extends from southern Alabama to 28N90W. The present gradient will maintain light to gentle southwest winds east of 90W through the forecast period, except over the far NE Gulf where a slighter tighter gradient near the trough will support moderate to fresh southwest winds. Gentle to moderate southerly winds west of 90W will increase to moderate to locally fresh speeds at night through Thu as broad low pressure develops over Texas and northeastern Mexico. Light to gentle winds are expected across the Gulf on Fri, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan peninsula at night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean off the Colombia coast and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 5-8 ft in this area. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted across the majority of the basin, except in the NW portion where winds are gentle to moderate and seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the north- central Atlantic extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, and fresh to strong winds in the central and southwestern portions of the basin through Sat night. These winds will be modulated by a pair of tropical waves moving across the area. Gentle to moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue, and reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras on Tue night and continue to pulse at night through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the Atlantic. A ridge extends along 27N in the western basin. North of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the SW with 5-7 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from the E with an earlier altimeter pass confirming seas are 5-7 ft north of 20N, and 6-8 ft south of 20N. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores high will continue to extend a ridge southwestward across the region. This will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast winds mainly S of 25N during the forecast period, except N of Hispaniola where winds will reach strong speeds at night Tue and Wed. Moderate to fresh southwest winds north of 29N associated with the passage of a frontal boundary north of the area will diminish slightly on Tue and continue through Thu. Afterwards, these winds become mainly gentle southeast to south through Sat night. $$ AReinhart