000 AXNT20 KNHC 111624 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jul 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 36W from 06N to 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 09N, between 34W and 40W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 68W from 07N to 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 84W from 07N to 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 12N to 18N, between 82W and 86W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N33W. The ITCZ begins west of a tropical wave, extending from 08N40W to 07N58W along the coast of Guyana. In addition to convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is observed along the monsoon trough from 05N to 12N, between 14W to 27W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters supporting gentle to moderate S-SW winds across the majority of the basin. A surface trough is analyzed from the Florida panhandle to the east-central Gulf. Scattered moderate convection associated with this trough is observed from 25N to 30N, between 82W and 92W. Buoys and altimeter data confirm seas are 2-4 ft throughout the Gulf. For the forecast, the present gradient will maintain light to gentle southwest winds east of 90W through the forecast period, except over the far NE Gulf where a slighter tighter gradient near the trough will support moderate to fresh southwest winds. Gentle to moderate southerly winds west of 94W will increase to moderate to fresh speeds at night through Thu as broad low pressure develops over Texas and northeastern Mexico. Light to gentle winds are expected across the Gulf on Fri, except over the eastern Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan peninsula at night. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and the Colombian Low is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and 5-8 ft seas across the majority of the basin, except in the NW portion, where winds are gentle to moderate and seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the north- central Atlantic extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, and fresh to strong winds in the central and southwestern portions of the basin through Fri night. These winds will be modulated by a pair of tropical waves moving across the area. Gentle to moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue, and reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras on Wed night and continue to pulse at night through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the Atlantic. A ridge extends along 27N in the western basin. North of the ridge, winds are moderate to fresh from the SW with 4-7 ft seas. South of the ridge, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Atlantic, winds are gentle to moderate from the E with a recent altimeter pass confirming seas are 5-7 ft north of 20N, and 6-8 ft south of 20N. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE with 6-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores high will continue to extend a ridge across the region. This will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast winds mainly S of 25N during the forecast period, except N of Hispaniola where winds will reach strong speeds at night Tue and Wed. Moderate to fresh southwest winds north of 29N associated with the passage of a frontal boundary north of the area will diminish slightly on Tue and continue through Thu. Afterwards, these winds become mainly gentle southeast to south through Fri night. $$ Flynn