000 AXNT20 KNHC 102306 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jul 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 32W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-10N between 31W-36W. A eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 64W from 20N southward, moving W around 15 to 20 kt. No significant deep convection is present with this tropical wave. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends its axis along 80W, from 20N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 16N southward and west of 79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to a tropical wave axis near 10N31W. The ITCZ begins just west of the tropical waves axis near 09N34W to 05N53W at the coast of French Guiana. In addition to convection associated with the Atlantic tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-10N between 18W-24W and from 06N-09N between 48W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is located from the Florida panhandle near 30N85W to 26N90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted north of 26N between 86W-92W. Winds across the Gulf are moderate or weaker and seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, the surface ridging extending across the basin will maintain light to gentle return flow E of 90W through the forecast period, except over the far NE basin where a developing surface trough will support moderate to fresh SW winds. Gentle to moderate winds W of 90W will increase to moderate to fresh speeds by early Mon and continue through Thu night as a broad area of low pressure develops over Texas and NE Mexico. Light to gentle variable winds are expected basin-wide on Fri, except over the Bay of Campeche where winds will be enhanced by a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan peninsula during the night hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High located well northeast of the area and a 1010 mb Colombian Low at 10N75W supports fresh to strong NE to E trades across much of the central and SE Caribbean. Elsewhere the E trades are moderate or weaker. Seas are 8-10 ft in the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft in the western Caribbean. Aside from deep convection associated with the western tropical wave, no additional deep convection is noted. For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the north- central Atlantic extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the E basin, and fresh to strong winds in the central and portions of the SW basin through Fri night. These winds will be modulated by a pair of tropical waves moving across the area. Gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue, and reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras on Tue night, continuing through Fri night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters with ridging extending across our waters from 31N50W to 27N80W. Gentle to fresh NE to E trades are occurring between the ridge and the ITCZ. Seas are 6-8 ft south of 22N and 4-5 ft north of 22N. Geocolor satellite imagery distinctly shows a strong Saharan Air Layer with substantial amount of dust south of 23N and east of 62W across most of the tropical North Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the Azores high will continue to extend a ridge SW across the region, which will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds mainly S of 25N through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh SW winds N of 29N associated with the passage of a frontal boundary N of the area will diminish to moderate Tue morning. Afterward, gentle to moderate SW winds will prevail through Fri night. $$ Landsea