283 AXNT20 KNHC 100510 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jul 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from 17N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 08N-10N between 23W-30W. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 18N southward, moving W around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen from 07N-10N between 50W-61W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W/77W, and extends from eastern Cuba to northern Colombia. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is near the southern end of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 10N28W. The ITCZ continues from 10N28W to 06N45W to 08N45W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within about 120 nm south of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ. The eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica and Panama to a 1009 mb Colombian Low at 10N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 11N W of 78W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf waters supporting mainly light and gentle winds over the eastern Gulf and gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the western Gulf. Seas are generally 3 ft or less. A surface trough is just W of the Yucatan peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the trough axis over the eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate return flow E of 90W through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds W of 90W will increase to moderate to fresh speeds early on Mon and continue through Wed night as a broad area of low pressure develops over Texas and extends along eastern Mexico, increasing the pressure gradient in the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High located well northeast of the area and the Colombian Low supports fresh to strong NE to E trades across much of the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds of 25-30 kt in the Gulf of Venezuela and near the coast of Colombia. Weaker winds are noted over the eastern Caribbean and NW Caribbean. Seas are 8-10 ft over the south- central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. An upper-level low now spinning over central Cuba continues to support the development of showers and thunderstorms across parts of the island. This feature will continue to move westward over Cuba this Sunday enhancing the convective activity, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours. This system will also continue to aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms over South Florida. For the forecast, high pressure N of the Caribbean Sea will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the E basin and fresh to strong winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Wed night as two tropical waves move through the region. Gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue, and reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High continues to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters. The pressure gradient between the High and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing generally moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the tropical North Atlantic. Seas are 6-8 ft south of 25N and 4-6 ft north of 25N. No deep convection is occurring away from the tropical waves and ITCZ/monsoon trough mentioned earlier. The Saharan Air Layer from CIMSS indicates a large area of African dust covering the Atlantic waters E of 60W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue to extend a ridge SW across the region, which will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds mainly S of 25N through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will develop tonight N of 29N and continue through Tue morning as a frontal boundary moves across the waters N of the region. This will slightly weaken the ridge Sun night through Mon night. $$ GR