000 AXNT20 KNHC 092319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jul 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-10N between 23W-27W. An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 56W from 18N southward, moving W around 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 07N-10N between 50W-60W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, from 20N southward, moving W around 15 kt. The 1200 UTC Upper Air Sounding from Santo Domingo indicated that the tropical wave passed overnight, and that mid-level moisture decreased in the lee of the tropical wave. No convection is noted with the tropical wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea near 11N15W to 10N30W. The ITCZ continues from 10N30W to 05N53W along the coast of French Guiana. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 120 NM of both the monsoon trough and ITCZ. The eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica at 09N83W to a 1010 mb Colombian Low at 10N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 10N between 75W-83W. GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, recent satellite images and surface observations indicate a weak surface trough continues in the north-central Gulf, extending from 29N87W to 24N93W. A few showers and tstorms are possible along this boundary today. Weak ridging extending across Florida into the eastern Gulf continues to maintain light to gentle return flow across the Gulf waters. Seas are 1-3 ft. For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the gulf will maintain gentle to moderate return flow E of 90W through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds W of 90W will increase to moderate to fresh speeds early on Mon and continue through Wed night as a broad area of low pressure develops over Texas and extends along eastern Mexico, increasing the pressure gradient in the region. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High well northeast of the area and a 1010 mb Colombian Low is forcing fresh to strong NE to E trades across much of the Caribbean except for weaker winds over the eastern Caribbean and NW Caribbean. Seas are 8-10 ft over the south Central Caribbean, 5-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 3-5 ft in the NW Caribbean. No deep convection is currently occurring over the Caribbean, except where noted above in the vicinity of the eastern North Pacific's monsoon trough. For the forecast, A strong Bermuda-Azores high extending a ridge to the northern Caribbean will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds across the E basin and fresh to strong winds in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Wed night as two tropical waves move through the region. Gentle to moderate winds in the NW Caribbean will increase to moderate to fresh on Tue, and reach strong speeds in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical Bermuda-Azores High currently dominates the discussion waters. The pressure gradient between the High and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing generally moderate to fresh NE to E trades across the tropical North Atlantic. Seas are 6-8 ft south of 25N and 4-6 ft north of 25N. No deep convection is occurring away from the tropical waves and ITCZ/monsoon trough mentioned earlier. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores high will continue to extend a ridge SW across the region, which will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds mainly S of 25N through the forecast period. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will develop tonight N of 29N and continue through Tue morning as a frontal boundary moves across the waters N of the region. This will slightly weaken the ridge Sun night through Mon night. $$ Landsea