729 AXNT20 KNHC 082305 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jul 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Localized gale force winds are expected to pulse once again in the Gulf of Venezuela later this evening. Seas will range 8 to 10 ft by tonight. Winds and seas will improve by Sat morning, and winds are expected to stay below gale force through the rest of the weekend. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast product issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 21W from 17N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 12N, between 19W and 22W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 47W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 12N, between 44W and 49W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 66W from 19N southward, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this feature at this time. A western Caribbean tropical wave extends along 86W from 23N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted S of 17N, between 84W and 87W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 13N17W to 09N29W. The ITCZ continues from 09N29W to 06N45W then W of a tropical wave near 07N50W to the coast of Guyana near 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the African coast from 10N to 16N and E of 18W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 02N to 10N between 30W and 53W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge with a relaxed pressure gradient is causing favorable marine conditions across the Gulf. A trough extends across the western and central Gulf from 18N93W to 28N87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near this trough in the eastern Bay of Campeche from 18N to 22N between 90W and 95W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted within 50 nm of the trough. Winds are light to gentle across the basin with 1-3 ft seas. A few weak showers are observed in the Bay of Campeche and NE Gulf. For the forecast, the high pressure ridge across the northern Gulf will shift south to along 28N through Sat night, then shift south to the central Gulf Sun through mid-week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat through Mon. Fresh SE winds will develop in the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue night and diminish Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the Gulf of Venezuela. Please read the Tropical Waves section above for details on the two waves moving across the Caribbean. The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds across the central Caribbean with 7-10 ft seas. Easterly winds are moderate to fresh in the eastern Caribbean with 4-7 ft seas. In the northwest Caribbean, winds are moderate from the E-SE with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten enough over the southwestern Caribbean to allow for winds to pulse back up to gale force for a few hours tonight in the Gulf of Venezuela. A tropical wave that extends from the western tip of Cuba to inland eastern Honduras and to northern Costa Rica will move west of the Caribbean tonight. Fresh winds prevail behind the wave over the central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the wave. Winds and seas will diminish significantly across the basin this weekend, then increase from Mon afternoon through Wed as a tropical wave currently near 64W moves across the Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more details on the two waves moving across the Atlantic. The Bermuda-Azores high dominates the pattern. In the western Atlantic, gentle southerly winds increase to moderate southeasterlies south of 25N, and fresh easterlies south of 22N. Seas gradually increase southward from 4-8 ft. In the central Atlantic, gentle winds increase to moderate to fresh easterlies south of 25N. Seas gradually increase southward from 3 ft to 6-8 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh from the N-NE with 5-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge will extend along 29N and E of northeastern Florida tonight, with the associated gradient maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola in the evenings and at night through Sat. The ridge will shift S to along 27N over the weekend as a cold front approaches from the NW. The front will move slowly southeastward and stall off the southeastern U.S. coast. Fresh SW winds ahead of the front over the far NW forecast waters will shift northeast of the area late Sun night into Mon as front dissipates. High pressure will then build westward near 29N next week. $$ AReinhart