228 AXNT20 KNHC 081026 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jul 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Latest scatterometer data depicted gale force winds occurring over the Gulf of Venezuela. These conditions are expected to continue through this afternoon. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast product issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends it axis along 18W from 07N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 14W and 19W. Similar convective activity is behind the wave axis over parts Guinea Bissau and southern Senegal. A tropical wave extends from 07N to 20N with axis along 43W, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the ITCZ, particularly from 09N to 11N between 40W and 45W. African dust surrounds most of the wave axis. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles with axis along 62W from 07N to 20N, moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan air is limited convection associated with the wave. A tropical wave is over the Caribbean Sea and extends from western Cuba to near western Panama moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave appears to enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms between the Cayman Islands and the southern coast of Cuba. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the W coast of Africa near 13N17W to 10N27W. The ITCZ begins near 10N27W to 10N41W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 09N45W to 10N60W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves, no significant convective activity is noted. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the Gulf waters supporting light and gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, except in the Straits of Florida where gentle to moderate easterly winds prevail. Similar wind speeds are over the western Gulf in a SE wind flow. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except near 4 ft in the Bay of Campeche. A surface trough is analyzed near the Yucatan peninsula and is drifting westward across the SW Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the trough axis. Campeche reported rain and gusty winds in association with this convective activity. For the forecast, high pressure ridge across the northern Gulf will reorganize along 28N through Sat, then shift south to the central Gulf through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat through Mon. Fresh SW winds will develop in the eastern Bay of Campeche and south-central Gulf late Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning currently in effect for the Gulf of Venezuela. Please read the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave moving across the western Caribbean. An upper-level low spinning over Hispaniola. This low is forecast to move toward eastern Cuba today and Sat. As a result, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to increase over eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over northern Colombia. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convection. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trades between Hispaniola and western Venezuela, and gentle to moderate winds are noted over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, gale force winds will prevail across the Gulf of Venezuela through this afternoon due to a tight pressure gradient in the area. The tropical wave that extends from western Cuba to western Panama will move across the rest of the western Caribbean through tonight. Fresh winds prevail behind the wave over the central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of the wave. Winds and seas will diminish significantly across the basin this weekend, then increase from Mon afternoon through Tue night as the next tropical wave moves across the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more details. The Bermuda-Azores High dominates the Atlantic forecast waters and has a center of 1039 mb NE of the Azores. Based on scatterometer data, a belt of moderate to fresh winds is noted around the southern periphery of this high, affecting mainly the waters S of 25N. Seas are 6-8 ft within these winds. The associated ridge extends toward the Bahamas and Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. For the forecast west of 55W, the high pressure ridge along 28N extending westward to northern Florida will persist through tonight resulting in moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola this evening and night through Sat. A cold front will move slowly SE off the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce fresh SW winds across the far NW forecast waters by early Sat. High pressure will build in the wake of the front by Sun. $$ ERA