245 AXNT20 KNHC 071622 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jul 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W, S of 20N, and moving W around 15 kt. There are some weak showers near the trough axis. Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W, S of 21N, and moving W around 15 kt. Dry Saharan dust continues to suppress the development of any significant convection near the wave. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending from 23N74W to 07N81W, from the SE Bahamas, across eastern Cuba, Jamaica and central Panama. The wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave axis around Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 10N23W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N28W to 06N38W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 06N40W to 07N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09N and E of 25W. Similar convection is seen from 03N to 07N and between 31W and 38W. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends from coastal NW Colombia near 12N74W, across the SW Caribbean and the Caribbean coast of Panama near 09N78W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 100 nm of the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough extends from the Big Bend region of Florida near 30N83W to 23N87W and a few showers are present near the axis. The rest of the basin is dominated by a weak 1017 mb high pressure system near 28N87W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin, except for locally moderate winds in the central Bay of Campeche. Seas of 3-4 ft are found in the Bay of Campeche and 1-3 ft in the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, a surface ridge across the N Gulf will reorganize along 28N Fri through Sat then sink S and across the central Gulf through Mon. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. A low-level trough extending from near 29N83W to 23N86W will move slowly westward and weaken through tonight, accompanied by scattered moderate convection. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat and Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section above for details on convection in the SW Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave extending across the central Caribbean. The rest of the Caribbean Sea is experiencing fairly tranquil weather conditions. The basin is in the southwestern periphery of the broad subtropical ridge located north of the Azores. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures over northern South America result in fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds occurring off northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. The rest of the central and eastern Caribbean experience moderate to fresh easterly winds, except for occasionally strong trades off southern Hispaniola. Seas in the described waters are 4-6 ft. The remainder of the Caribbean enjoys moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft. For the forecast, a tropical wave that extends from eastern Cuba southwestward to central Panama will move across the western Caribbean through Fri night. Winds and seas will increase to fresh to strong today through Sat over the south- central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of this tropical wave. Winds and seas will diminish significantly across the basin Sat night through Sun night, then increase late Mon and Mon night as another tropical wave moves across the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A broad upper level disturbance centered N of Puerto Rico near 23N67W continues to produce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection S of 25N and between 60W and 71W. The disturbance will maintain a westward track over the next day or so, helping to induce showers and thunderstorms in Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and SE Bahamas this afternoon and evening. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds are found W of 55W and S of 26N, with seas of 4-7 ft. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a large high pressure system of 1041 mb near 49N19W, supporting fairly tranquil weather conditions across the basin. The tranquil conditions are accentuated by a broad region of Saharan dust moving across the Atlantic and suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. The pressure gradient as the result of the strong subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and NW Africa allow for fresh to strong NE-E winds S of a line from the Moroccan coast near 31N10W to the Leeward Islands near 19N63W. Seas in the described waters are 6-9 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are occurring in the E Atlantic N of 20N and E of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from the NE Atlantic SW to the central Atlantic then W along 29N to northern Florida will persist through Fri night to produce moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola each evening and night through Sat. A cold front will move slowly SE off the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce fresh SW winds across the far NW waters early Sat. These fresh SW winds will shift eastward to between 68W and 78W Sat night through Sun night before shifting NE of the area Mon and Mon night. $$ Delgado