000 AXNT20 KNHC 071051 AAC TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Jul 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W and S of 20N, moving W around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection in association with this wave is well ahead of it from 08N to 13N between 32W and 43W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W from 10N to 21N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 51W and 55W. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending from 23N72W to 09N78W, moving W 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted across the northern portion of the wave from the Windward Passage to the sough coast of Jamaica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 18N16W to 10N28W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N28W to 07N35W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 07N41W to the coastal state of Amapa Brazil near 03N51W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 07.5N between 14W and 35W. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches from coastal NW Colombia across the SW Caribbean and Caribbean coasts of Panama and Costa Rica to near 10N86W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 45 nm either side of the trough from the coasts of Colombia to Costa Rica. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough stretches from 29N83W to 24N86W, where scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm either side of the trough, to the north of 25N. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions prevail. A weak ridge extends from the Big Bend region westward across the basin and is maintaining light to locally moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft. A thermal trough as shifted westward off of the Yucatan Peninsula and is along 92W. Associated weather has recently dissipated. A few clusters of moderate convection persist along the Mexican coastal waters, offshore of Veracruz and La Pesca areas. For the forecast, the surface ridge across the N Gulf will reorganize along 28N Fri through Sat then sink S and across the central Gulf through Mon. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. The low-level trough across the eastern Gulf will move slowly westward and weaken through tonight, accompanied by scattered moderate convection. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat and Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section above for details on convection in the SW Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave extending across the central Caribbean. The remainder of the basin is experiencing fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong trades are present in the south-central Caribbean south of 16N, with the strongest winds near the Colombian coast. Seas are 6-7 ft across these waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades are evident in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean, with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, the tropical wave across the Windward Passage will move across the western Caribbean tonight through Fri night. Winds and seas will increase to fresh to strong today through Sat over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of this tropical wave. Seas are expected to build to 10-1 ft offshore of Colombia tonight through early Fri morning. Winds and seas will diminish significantly across the basin Sat night through Sun night, then increase late Mon and Mon night as another tropical wave moves across the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A broad TUTT low is centered north of Puerto Rico near 24N66W, and is supporting scattered moderate isolated strong convection from both the Atlantic and Caribbean coasts of Hispaniola along 70W, east-northeastward across the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico to 23N62W. The low will shift slowly westward today and help to produce strong afternoon convection. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong subtropical ridge centered across the NE Atlantic, southwestward to near Bermuda then west- southwest to northern Florida. Stable conditions and a large area of Saharan Air dominate the Atlantic east of 60W, suppressing the development of significant convection. W of 55W, mainly moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent, becoming moderate S winds to the north of 28N. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds S of 24N and between 35W and 60W. Seas in this area are 5 to 8 ft. A region of mainly strong winds is found off the coasts of Western Sahara, Morocco, and the Canary Islands with seas of 6 to 9 ft, and is accompanied by a thick layer of Saharan Air and widespread dust. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic will persist through Fri night to produce moderate to fresh trade winds south of 25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola each evening and night through Sat. A cold front will move slowly SE off the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce fresh SW winds across the far NW waters early Sat. These fresh SW winds will shift eastward to between 68W and 78W Sat night through Sun night before shifting NE and out of the regional waters Mon and Mon night. $$ Stripling