619 AXNT20 KNHC 070454 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jul 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W and S of 20N, moving W around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection has developed in association with this wave from 08N to 12N between 32W and 42W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 52W and S of 20N, moving W around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. A Caribbean tropical wave has its axis extending from 22N71W to 10N78W, moving W around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted across the northern portion of the wave affecting the Windward Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends from Mauritania near 16N17W to 11N25W. The ITCZ stretches from 11N25W to 10N33W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 08N38W to 05N48W. Convection along these features is primarily associated with a tropical wave described in the section above. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough reaches the SW Caribbean through the coast of Panama to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm of the coasts of SE Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough stretches from W Florida near 28N83W to 25N85W. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil conditions prevail. A 1016 mb high pressure centered near 28N92W maintains light to locally moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft. A thermal trough over the Yucatan Peninsula is leading to moderate NE winds over waters just W of the Peninsula. For the forecast, surface ridge over the northern Gulf will shift southward to along 28N through Sat. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each evening and night along the NW Yucatan peninsula through Fri and to moderate Sat through Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ Section above for details on convection in the SW Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the wave extending across the central Caribbean. The remainder of the basin is experiencing fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong trades are present in the south-central Caribbean, with the strongest winds near the Colombian coast. Seas are 6-8 ft prevail in the described waters. Moderate to occasionally fresh trades are evident in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean, with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, the tropical wave will move across the western Caribbean through Fri night. Winds and seas will increase to fresh to strong early Thu through Sat over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area in the wake of this tropical wave. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin Sun and Sun night, then increase some Mon and Mon night as another tropical wave moves across the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A TUTT located east of the Bahamas is producing scattered showers S of 24N and W of 62W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a strong subtropical ridge centered east of Bermuda and a large area of Saharan dust, suppressing the development of significant convection. W of 55W, mainly moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds S of 23N and between 35W and 60W. Seas in the area described are 5 to 7 ft. A region of mainly strong winds is found off the coasts of Western Sahara, Morocco, and the Canary Islands with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will persist through the rest of the week to produce moderate to fresh trade winds S of 25N. Winds will pulse to strong off the northern coast of Hispaniola each night through Sat. A cold front will approach the SE U.S. coast over the weekend and produce fresh SW winds across the far NW waters Sat, shifting eastward to between 65W and 76W on Sun and to between 63W and 74W Mon and Mon night. $$ ERA