000 AXNT20 KNHC 031717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jul 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1705 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W, south of 18N and moving W around 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a dry and stable environment and no significant convection is noted with it at this time. A robust Caribbean tropical wave has its axis from 25N71W to 08N77W, extending across the SE Bahamas, Haiti and W Colombia, and moving W around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 15N to 25N and between 65W and 75W. The strongest convection is affecting southern Hispaniola and the offshore waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to near gale- force winds from 12N to 25N and between 66W and 75W. The strongest winds are found in the offshore waters of southern Hispaniola and N Colombia and NE Venezuela. Localized winds to gale force are possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Seas of 7-10 ft are found in the described waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends from 07N23W to 04N33W to 05N43W. The ITCZ then continues from 06N46W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 05N, E of 27W. Similar convection is also noted from north of the ITCZ to 10N and between 47W and NE South America. GULF OF MEXICO... Divergence aloft is triggering some shower activity over the Florida panhandle and extending into the NE Gulf of Mexico, especially N of 28N and E of 88W. The rest of the basin is dominated by a weak pressure regime that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, a surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf through Tue night before drifting north of the area through mid week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on the active wave in the central Caribbean Sea. Outside of the influence of the strong tropical wave in the central Caribbean Sea, fresh to occasionally strong trades are found in the eastern Caribbean, while moderate to locally fresh trades are present in the NW and SW Caribbean. Seas are 4-7 ft in the eastern Caribbean and 3-6 ft in the NW and SW Caribbean. The weather conditions are fairly tranquil in the remainder of the basin, except for an area of showers and isolated thunderstorms S of 13N and W of 80W, affecting the waters off SE Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, a strong tropical wave is located from western Haiti to near the Colombia/Panama border. This tropical wave will continue moving quickly westward across the central Caribbean today and the western Caribbean through Mon, accompanied by a broad surge of strong winds and high seas across both the Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Winds and seas will then diminish over most of the basin through mid week. Looking ahead, winds and seas will start to increase again by Thu over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds north of the area following the next tropical wave moving through the northern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on the active wave extending from the SE Bahamas to Colombia. A few showers are located off NE Florida, while the remainder of the western tropical Atlantic (W of 55W) remains fairly tranquil under the influence of the strong subtropical ridge north of the Azores. Outside of the influence of the strong tropical wave in the SE Bahamas, moderate to fresh easterly winds are evident S of 25N and W of 55W, and light to gentle anticyclonic winds N of 25N. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by the aforementioned ridge and an outbreak of Saharan dust continues to move westward across the region, helping to suppress the development of convection. Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly winds prevail between 20W and 55W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. Over the far NE Atlantic, mainly E of 20W and N of 20N, fresh to strong N-NE winds affect the waters off the Canary Islands, Western Sahara and Morocco. Seas in the area are 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge extending from the central Atlantic to northeast Florida will persist through the week. The northern portion of a strong tropical wave currently over western Haiti is supporting strong winds and rough seas near the Turks and Caicos Islands and southern Bahamas. These winds and seas will diminish through tonight as the wave moves westward, but strong winds may still pulse off the northern coast of Hispaniola through late Mon. $$ Delgado