000 AXNT20 KNHC 031020 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jul 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Colin is no longer identifiable in satellite imagery, radar, or surface observations and is assumed to have dissipated over eastern North Carolina near 35N77W. The last advisory has been issued on Colin this morning. South to southwest winds of 20 to 25 kt are converging within 180 nm offshore of the coasts of North Carolina and South Carolina and producing a solid line of moderate to strong convection parallel to the coast from 31.5N to 34.5N. Seas are 7 to 10 ft across this area. What remnants that remain of Colin are expected to merge with a frontal system over the western Atlantic in about 24 hours. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory for Colin at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 43W, from 02N to 18N and is moving W at 15-20 kt. This wave is embedded in a dry and stable environment and no significant convection is noted with it at this time. A strong Caribbean tropical wave extends from 21N70W to 06N74W and is moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 17N to 23N between 65W and 73W. Scatterometer data from 0100 to 0200 UTC tonight showed strong to gale force winds occurring south of the Dominican Republic in strong convection, which has since diminishing considerably. However strong winds to near 30 kt and seas to 11 ft are assumed to continue to the south of Hispaniola early this morning. Localized winds to gale force are still possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Fresh to strong winds associated with this wave are also occurring across the Atlantic waters from offshore of eastern Cuba to north of Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from southern Senegal near 13N17W to 05.5N27W. The ITCZ continues from 05.5N27W to 05N40W. The ITCZ then resumes west of a tropical wave from 06N46W to 06.5N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough to 05N between 24W and the African coast. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is also noted from 08N to 10N between 47W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf along about 29N, with lower pressure over Mexico and a weak trough along the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Buoys are reporting moderate to fresh SE winds in the western Gulf with 2-3 ft seas. Winds are moderate to fresh in the southern Gulf with 3-4 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable in the NE Gulf with gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast, a surface ridge extends across the N Gulf along 29N and will dominate the Gulf waters through Tue night before drifting northward to along 30N. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on the active wave in the eastern Caribbean. Outside of the near gale force winds and rough seas due to the tropical wave, easterly winds are strong in the eastern Caribbean to the east of 67W, fresh in the central Caribbean and gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean. Strong winds are also funneling through the Windward Passage. Seas are generally 6-8 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, with 9-11 ft in the vicinity of the tropical wave. Seas are 4-6 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the strong tropical wave along 72W will continue moving quickly westward across the central Caribbean today, accompanied by a broad surge of strong winds and high seas across both the Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Seas across the western Caribbean will continue to subside through today. High pressure will build modestly across the W Atlantic Mon through early Tue to maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Colin. Convection in the western Atlantic associated with the remnants of Colin extends southwestward to 29N80W. Winds in the far western Atlantic are moderate from the South with 3-5 ft seas. Subtropical high pressure dominates the pattern through the remainder of the Atlantic. Gentle winds along 30N increase to moderate south of 29N and moderate to fresh south of 25N. Winds are generally from the SE in the western Atlantic, E in the central Atlantic and NE in the eastern Atlantic. Seas are generally 4-6 ft north of 25N and 6-8 ft south of 25N, except 8 to 9 ft north of Hispaniola. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge centered across the central Atlantic N of 30N will continue to dominate the forecast waters through today. The strong tropical wave along 72W will move quickly across the central Caribbean Sea today, accompanied by a broad surge of fresh to strong winds and high seas across the waters S of 25N. Active convection associated with this wave will be capable of producing gale force wind gusts across the waters north of Hispaniola and through the SE Bahamas today through this evening. High pressure will then extend west along 28N through mid week. $$ Stripling