774 AXNT20 KNHC 030408 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jul 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Colin is centered near 34.4N 77.8W at 03/0300 UTC or 10 nm N of Wilmington North Carolina moving NE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Colin has become weak and disorganized tonight, with a few showers lingering offshore. Winds have decreased below tropical storm force. 12 ft seas reach as far as 120 nm to the southeast of the center. Colin will continue to weaken and will likely lose all tropical characteristics this morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory for Colin at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends along 41W, from 02N to 18N and is moving W at 10 kt. Associated convection is weak. A strong Caribbean tropical wave extends from 21N68W to 05N70W and is moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 14N to 21N between 64W and 71W. A recent scatterometer pass found strong to near gale force winds south of Haiti, where seas have built up to 11 ft. Localized winds are likely stronger in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds are fresh to strong in the eastern Caribbean due to this feature. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from southern Senegal near 13N17W to 05N28W. The ITCZ continues from 05N28W to 05N38W. The ITCZ continues west of a tropical wave from 05N44W to 05N53W. No significant convection is evident across the tropical Atlantic at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends across the northern Gulf, with lower pressure over Mexico and a weak trough across the Yucatan Peninsula. Buoys are reporting moderate to fresh SE winds in the western Atlantic with 2-4 ft seas. Winds are moderate to fresh in the southern Gulf with 3-5 ft seas. Conditions are more favorable in the NE Gulf with gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast, a surface ridge extends across the Gulf along 28N and will dominate the Gulf waters through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on the active wave in the eastern Caribbean. Outside of the near gale force winds and rough seas due to the tropical wave, easterly winds are strong in the eastern Caribbean, fresh in the central Caribbean and gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean. Strong winds are also noted south of Hispaniola and funneling through the Windward Passage. Seas are generally 6-8 ft in the eastern and central Caribbean, with 9-11 ft in the vicinity of the tropical wave. Seas are 4-6 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, a strong tropical wave located along 70W will continue moving quickly westward across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and across the central Caribbean Sun, accompanied by a broad surge of strong winds and high seas across both the Atlantic and Caribbean waters. Seas across the western Caribbean will continue to subside through Sun. High pressure will build modestly across the W Atlc Mon night through early Tue to maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Colin. Convection in the western Atlantic has diminished as Colin becomes weaker and more disorganized. Winds in the far western Atlantic are moderate from the South with 3-5 ft seas. Subtropical high pressure dominates the pattern through the remainder of the Atlantic. Gentle winds along 30N increase to moderate south of 29N and moderate to fresh south of 25N. Winds are generally from the SE in the western Atlantic, E in the central Atlantic and NE in the eastern Atlantic. Seas are generally 4-6 ft north of 25N and 6-8 ft south of 25N. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic N of 30N and will continue to dominate the forecast waters through the weekend. A strong tropical wave along 70W will move quickly across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend. This will bring a broad surge of fresh to strong winds and high seas across the waters S of 25N through Sun. $$ Flynn