000 AXNT20 KNHC 022205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jul 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Colin is centered near 34.0N 78.6W at 02/2100 UTC or 40 nm WSW of Wilmington North Carolina moving NE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Colin has lost organization this afternoon, with convection remaining sheared to the southeast of the center. Tropical storm force winds are estimated to extend out 70 nm from the center in the southeast quadrant of Colin, with seas to 12 ft reaching as far as 120 nm to the southeast of the center. Colin will continue to weaken and is forecast to dissipate in day or two off or along the coast of North Carolina. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory for Colin at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 40W, south of 18N and moving W near 15 kt. The wave is enveloped in an outbreak of Saharan dust that inhibits the development of deep convection. A robust Caribbean tropical wave extends along roughly 67W/68W from near the Mona Passage to central Venezuela, and moving to the west at 15 kt. Scattered showers to isolated strong convection is found along the trough axis, mainly from 15N to 17N between 67W and 69W. Earlier this afternoon, this pattern was also interacting with local sea breezes to enhance convection over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass show strong to near gale- force winds to the east of the trough axis. Seas are 6-9 ft in the eastern Caribbean Sea. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coasts of Senegal and Gambia near 13N16W and extends to 06N30W. Segments of the ITCZ stretch from 06N30W to 08N38W and from 08N42W to 08N58W. No significant convection is evident across the tropical Atlantic at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak ridge extends across the northern Gulf, and a weak trough is analyzed along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh SE winds are observed along portions of the Texas coast, but the pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere over the western Gulf. Light breezes and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted over the eastern Gulf. A small area of thunderstorms is evident over the Loop Current in the southeast Gulf near 25N86W, but otherwise no significant thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, the surface ridge across the northern Gulf will dominate the basin through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail through this time. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for details on the active wave in the eastern Caribbean. In addition to the strong tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea, a large area of fresh NE to E winds was observed in a recent scatterometer satellite pass over much of the remainder of the Caribbean south of 18N. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed 6 to 8 ft seas between Haiti and northeast Colombia. Given the large fetch of the fresh winds, seas are likely approaching 9 ft in the open waters of the southwest Caribbean. Gentle to moderate E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident over the northwest Caribbean, north of 18N. Outside of the thunderstorm activity observed along the tropical wave, no significant convection is evident over the Caribbean at this time. For the forecast, the strong tropical wave located along 67W/68W will move quickly westward across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and across the central Caribbean Sun and Sun night. Any development of this system should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of strong winds and high seas across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it moves across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Colin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the waters off northeast Florida over the Gulf Stream, especially near 30N79W. Farther east, a couple of surface troughs are found SE of Bermuda but these features are not producing any significant convection. The rest of the region west of 55W is dominated by a 1025 mb high pressure system around 180 nm northeast of Bermuda. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures in the eastern Caribbean result in fresh to strong easterly winds S of 22N west of 60W. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, mainly north of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. The remainder of the area W of 55W experiences gentle to locally fresh anticyclonic winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under a strong ridge positioned north of the Azores, which allows for moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft to prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered across the central Atlantic north of 30N and will continue to dominate the forecast waters through the weekend. A strong tropical wave will move across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend. This will bring a broad surge of fresh to strong winds and high seas across the waters south of 25N through Sun. $$ Christensen