000 AXNT20 KNHC 012259 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jul 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Bonnie is centered near 11.3N 82.5W at 01/2100 UTC, or 90 nm ESE of Bluefields Nicaragua moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 100 nm north of the center. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 150 nm from the center in the northeastern quadrant and 90 nm from the center in the southeastern quadrant, with peak seas of 16 ft. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from the coast of Panama north to 15N west of 80W, including inland over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Bonnie will move across southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica tonight, and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Sat. Bonnie is expected to strengthen before it makes landfall tonight, then weaken inland. Bonnie will produce heavy rain across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica through Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is in the Atlantic near 34W, from 18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. No significant convection is noted near this tropical wave. The axis of a strong tropical wave is near 62W over the eastern Caribbean, from 18N southward, moving west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed west of the wave axis, from 12N to 18N between 57W and 64W. The 1200 UTC sounding from Barbados showed a significant increase in atmospheric moisture in the lee of the tropical wave, in addition to strong trade winds at the surface. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 10N25W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 10N25W to 07N30W and from 05N35W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection associated with the monsoon trough is from 07N to 09N between 19W and 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough is analyzed off the upper Texas coast. A weak surface ridge extends from 1019 mb high pressure centered off Apalachicola, Florida to the Tamaulipas coast of Mexico. This pattern is supporting light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted off the southwest coast of Florida. For the forecast, the weak trough off Texas will move inland overnight. The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through early next week to produce mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Tropical Storm Bonnie. Outside of the conditions associated with Tropical Storm Bonnie, strong easterly winds prevail over the central Caribbean with 8 to 10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the eastern Caribbean with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the NW Caribbean with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, Bonnie will move inland to 11.2N 84.4W Sat morning, before continuing westward and emerging across the Pacific waters Sat afternoon. The strong tropical wave will continue westward across the central Caribbean late Sat through Sun, and into the southwest Caribbean Mon. Any development of this system should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas across the Atlantic and Caribbean waters with this wave as it moves across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active off northeast Florida, well south of developing low pressure moving off the Georgia coast. Farther east, the Atlantic is being dominated by the Azores High. A weak surface trough remains stationary from 30N54W to 24N57W. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are evident east of the Windward and Leeward Islands to 50W, following the tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, the pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22N west of 35W, with 5 to 7 ft seas, and light to gentle breezes north of 22N west of 35W with 4 to 6 ft seas in easterly swell. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Bonnie will support pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through the weekend. A strong tropical wave moving across the eastern Caribbean Sea Sat and across the central Caribbean through Sun will bring a broad surge of winds and seas across the waters south of 22N through Sun. $$ Christensen