437 AXNT20 KNHC 302341 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jul 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 12.0N 75.8W at 30/2100 UTC or 470 nm E of Bluefields Nicaragua moving W at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas 12 ft or greater are within 120 nm from the center in the northeastern quadrant, with peak seas of 14 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 18N between 65W and 80W. A westward motion will bring the system across the southwestern Caribbean Sea through Friday, crossing Central America Friday night, and emerging over the eastern Pacific Ocean on Saturday. The system is forecast to intensify through Friday with weakening is expected while the system crosses Central America. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 28W, from 18N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N between 22W and 30W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W, from 17N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to 16N between 48W and 56W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 75W/76W, from 18N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Convection impacting the central Caribbean is described in the Special Features section for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 07N25W. The ITCZ extends from 05N31W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Low pressure is centered over the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N96W. Moderate winds prevail over the NW Gulf in the vicinity of the low, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the NW Gulf and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the upcoming weekend producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night near and to the W of the NW Yucatan peninsula through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. Outside of winds associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, fresh to strong winds prevail over the central Caribbean with moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean and gentle to moderate winds over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the central Caribbean, 5-8 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 3-5 ft over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move to 11.6N 78.5W Fri morning, 11.3N 81.4W Fri afternoon, inland to 11.3N 84.0W Sat morning, then west of area near 11.4N 86.5W Sat afternoon. A tropical wave located located along 55W is forecast to move over the Windward Islands on Friday and then over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend. Any development of this system should be slow to occur. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves across the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Outside of the tropical waves described above, the tropical and subtropical Atlantic is dominated by the Azores high centered north of the area. An upper level low just off the SE US coast has induced a trough at the surface, analyzed across the Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the trough axis. North of 20N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas over this area are in the 4-6 ft range, reaching 7 ft east of 40W. South of 20N, Fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity of the tropical wave near 55W, with seas to 9 ft. Elsewhere S of 20N, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 65W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters through the upcoming weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will support fresh to strong NE to E winds N of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage through Fri night. Then, a tropical wave forecast to move over the eastern Caribbean Sea by the weekend will bring a surge of winds and seas across the waters S of 22N Fri night through Sun. $$ AL