000 AXNT20 KNHC 290604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jun 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 10.9N 62.8W at 29/0300 UTC or 90 nm WNW of Trinidad, and moving WNW at 23 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Winds of 25 kt or greater are currently confined to the northern semicircle. Peak seas near 12 ft are up to 180 nm in a semicircle north of the center. Grenada reported ENE winds of 30 to 35 kt within the last hour. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring between Grenada and Bonaire Islands. On the latest forecast track, this system will move across the southern Windward Islands today, then reach the coast of northwestern Venezuela tonight and northern Colombia on Thu. Conditions remain conducive for development and it will likely become a tropical storm near the southern Windward Islands or near the coast of northwestern Venezuela. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Northern Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure centered over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is forecast to move slowly westward or west-southwestward and approach the coast of Texas during the next day or two. Slow development of the low is possible, and it could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before it moves inland on Wednesday night or Thursday. Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along portions of the Texas coast later this week. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and north of the system to near Lafayette, Louisiana. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Please see the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near the coast of Guinea-Bissau/Guinea from 18N southward, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 11N between the coast of Guinea/Sierra Leone and 21W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 17N southward, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 38W and 44W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W from 13N southward, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 10N between 47W and 51W. This wave might gradually develop later this week. Another tropical wave is close to Barbados near 59W from 15N southward into Guyana, and moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 14N between 54W and 59W. A Caribbean tropical wave is near 78W from Jamaica southward across eastern Panama into the East Pacific Ocean, and moving W at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near the Panama-Colombia border and nearby waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits into the Atlantic Ocean from the coast of Senegal to near 09N21W. Scattered showers are noted from 12N to 17N between the Senegal coast and 21W. Three segments of an ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 03N35W, 03N39W to 05N46W, and from 07N49W to 11N58W. Scattered moderate convection is present up to 120 nm along either side of the first segment. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring south of the second segment from the Equator to 03N between 42W and Amapa State, Brazil; and the third segment over Suriname, French Guiana and adjacent waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section at the beginning for more information about a low pressure over the north-central Gulf south of the Texas-Louisiana border. A mid-level low near the Florida Keys is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off the Florida west coast. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist across the north-central and northwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast outside of the northwestern Gulf, a weak ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf through the week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two near the Windward Islands. Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the west-central basin, near the Nicaragua coast. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. Other than waters near the Windward Islands, moderate to fresh ENE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are seen over the eastern and central basin. Gentle to moderate NE trades and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident for the southwestern basin. Light to gentle easterly trades and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the northwestern basin. For the forecast outside the area impacting by Potential Tropical Cyclone Two, a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic will likely approach the Lesser Antilles by Thu night, cross the islands on Fri, and move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late Fri and Fri night. A surge in winds and seas are expected with this wave. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough over the northwest Bahamas is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity. Another surface trough near 27N45W is causing similar conditions north of 25N between 43W and 46W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A large dome of 1037 mb high over the north-central Atlantic is providing gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas north of 22N between 36W and the Georgia/Florida coast. To the south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found from 08N to 22N between 30W and 52W. Farther west, fresh to locally strong easterly winds and 8 to 12 ft seas are evident from 09N to 22N between 52W and the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are found near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands north of 14N between the northwest African coast and 30W. Light to gentle trades and monsoonal winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters through at least Fri, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 22N, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 22N. $$ Chan