000 AXNT20 KNHC 281638 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1620 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 9.8N 57.5W at 28/1500 UTC or 225 nm E of Trinidad moving W at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Winds of 25 kt or greater are currently confined to the northern semicircle. Peak seas are 12 ft within 90 nm NE quadrant of the center. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is within 210 nm W semicircle and 240 nm NE quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 270 nm of the center. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday. Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with axis along 34W extending from 03N to 17N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and within 180 nm W of the wave axis from 05N to 14N. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 44/45W, extending from 02N to 14N, and moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N-06N between 41.5W-49W and from 07.5N-11N between 43W-50W. This system is forecast to interact with the tropical wave to its east over the next several days, and there is a low chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days while the overall system moves west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 73W, S of 17N, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm east of the wave axis and within 240 nm west of the wave axis from 11N-20N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 09N24W. The ITCZ continues from 09N24W to 08N32W, from 08N35W to 08N43W, and from 08N46W to 09N55W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N-15N between the coast of Africa and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm N of the ITCZ between 38W-41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1014 mb low pressure is centered in the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N92.5W. A surface trough extends through the low from 28N95W to 26N90W. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are associated with this system over the northwest Gulf, north of 25N and west of 90W. Fresh winds and 3-5 ft seas are associated with the low pressure. Elsewhere, a weak surface trough over the northeast Gulf is inducing isolated showers and tstorms there. Outside of the northwestern Gulf, light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, some additional development of the low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is possible as it moves slowly westward or west-southwestward and approaches the coast of southern Texas during the next two days. The system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. A weak ridge will continue to dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters through the week supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and the Tropical Waves section for details on the tropical wave along 73W. In addition to the convection described above, the east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing isolated to scattered moderate convection from 09N-16N between 76W-84.5W. Fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea with gentle winds in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft east of 77W across the eastern and central Caribbean, 2-4 ft in the SW basin and 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean. Potential Tropical Cyclone Two will move westward across the southern Caribbean, near the ABC Islands and the coast of Venezuela Wed night, possibly as a tropical storm. Two is currently forecast to be a hurricane by the time it approaches the coast of Central America early Sat. Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft over the next couple of days over the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features Section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. An upper-level low is centered near 23N79W near the Bahamas and Cuba. A surface trough is located over the Bahamas, extending from 22N77W to 27N74W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 23N-27N between 73W-78W. An upper-level trough extends northeastward from the upper-level low, which is inducing additional rainshowers from 27N-31N between 67W-72W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of broad ridging, anchored by 1035 mb high pressure along 40N to the west of the Azores. The latest ASCAT satellite data shows fresh trades from the ITCZ to 22N, except strong between 47W-62W. Winds peak around 35 kt near Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. Near the coast of Morocco, winds are likely currently N strong to near gale force. Elsewhere north of 22N, gentle to moderate winds prevail. The only exception is east of the Bahamas to north of Puerto Rico, where fresh trades are observed. Areas currently experiencing seas in excess of 8 ft include 08N-20N between the Lesser Antilles and 40W, and also off the coast of Morocco. Elsewhere, seas are below 8 ft at this time. For the forecast W of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters through at least Fri, supporting fresh easterly winds S of 22N, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds N of 22N. Moderate swell from enhanced easterly flow to the north of Potential Tropical Cyclone Two may affect waters north of Puerto Rico through Wed. $$ Hagen