000 AXNT20 KNHC 281028 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jun 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is centered near 9.3N 55.2W at 28/0900 UTC or 360 nm E of Trinidad moving W at 20 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft within 90 nm NE semicircle of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 14N between 51W and 62W. On the forecast track, the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday. Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the southern Caribbean Sea. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 31W extending from 03N to 17N, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N between 30W and 39W. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis along 44W, extending from 03N to 16N, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 40W and 50W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis along 70W, S of 16N, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 16N between 64W and 76W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough exits into the Atlantic through the Senegal coast to southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands at 11N21W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up south of the trough along the coast of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. Three segments of the ITCZ stretches from 11N21W to 08N28W, 07N30W to 07N39W, then 06N43W to 08N51W. Other than the convection near the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted up to 80 nm along either side of the third ITCZ segment. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Basin, including the coast of Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough runs southeastward from near the Texas-Louisiana border to the central Gulf. Another surface trough curves southward from near Tampa, Florida to western Cuba. These features are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the north-central, east-central and southeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh NE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are found in the areas, and also in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface trough near the north-central Gulf will drift westward over the next few days. It is expected to close into a modest low pressure near the northwestern Gulf on Tue before moving over southeastern Texas Wed. Elsewhere, a surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the middle of the week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features Section Above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. An upper-level low near central Cuba is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms south of Cuba. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather and gusty winds in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh ENE trades and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident for the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh E trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are seen across the central and southwestern basin, except just north of Panama. Gentle to moderate E trades and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone Two was near 8.7N 52.8W 1009 mb at 11 PM EDT and moving W at 15 kt. Maximum sustained winds were 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Two will move to 9.3N 55.3W Tue morning, 10.1N 59.7W Tue evening, and near 10.8N 63.9W Wed morning. Afterward, it will move to 11.4N 67.7W Wed evening, 11.8N 71.6W Thu morning, and 11.8N 75.4W Thu evening. Two will change little in intensity as it moves near 11.5N 81.7W late Fri. Two is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to waters near the southern Windward Islands late Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features Section above for details on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two and a Gale Warning off the coast of Morocco. An upper-level trough over the central Bahamas is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the central and southeast Bahamas, and near Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large dome of 1024 mb high over the north-central Atlantic is dominating north of 24N between 20W and the Georgia/Florida coast with gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft. Farther south, moderate to fresh ENE trades and seas at 5 to 8 ft are found from 09N to 24N between the central African coast and the Lesser/Greater Antilles. Besides the gale winds, fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident north of 24N between the northwest African coast and 20W. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin, except area near Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. For the forecast W of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 41N. A tropical wave accompanied with winds and seas will move across the Caribbean over the weekend with some of that energy extending across portions of the Atlantic waters near the Windward Islands through Sun. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this system as it moves W across the region. $$ Ramos