000 AXNT20 KNHC 262329 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located along 45W or about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands continues to show signs of organization. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted on either side of the wave, and mainly from 06N to 10N between 40W and 50W. A 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 08N44.5W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8-10 ft are ahead of the wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to the middle part of this week. This system is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely for the Windward Islands Tue night into Wed morning. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: The Azores High combined with a persisting low pressure area over Western Sahara is inducing gale force N winds near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone of Agadir. These gales are expected to continue through 28/00 UTC. Seas will likely be 10 to 12 ft in the area. Please read the latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo- France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Four tropical waves are noted between the W coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. One of them has the potential of tropical cyclone formation and is described in the Special Features section. A tropical is along 16W from 02N to 15N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 14W and 20W. A second tropical wave has its axis along 29W/30W from 02N to 14N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the wave axis 06N to 09N between 32W and 35W. Another tropical wave is along 60W S of 16N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles, mainly S of Dominica, and regional waters. Enhanced rainfall and gusty winds will continue across the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands through late tonight. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 08N22W. The ITCZ continues from 08N22W to 09N40W to 08N50W to 10N59W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 20W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak surface trough extends from coastal Mississippi to Southwest Florida, and it is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central and eastern Gulf, particularly E of 88W. A 1019 mb high pressure is analyzed W of the trough near 28N93W. Mostly gentle winds prevail across the basin, based on the latest scatterometer data. Seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. For the forecast, the aforementioned weak surface trough will drift westward to west-southwestward across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. Development of this system is expected to be slow to occur. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters early this week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is currently producing showers and tstorms with gusty winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles. See the Tropical Waves section for details. The eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough is along 10/11N in the SW Caribbean and is inducing some shower activity. Daytime heating, local sea breezes and mountain up slope lifting combined with available moisture are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of Cuba, Hispaniola and Jamaica. Recent ASCAT satellite data show moderate to locally fresh trades across the south-central Caribbean, and mainly moderate winds elsewhere, with the exception of gentle NE to E winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are 5-6 ft over the south-central Caribbean, 3-5 ft elsewhere across the central and eastern Caribbean, and 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will continue through early Mon as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave will approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. Please, refer to the Special Features section for more details on this wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above for details on the tropical waves traversing the basin and the gale near the coast of Morocco. A surface trough extends from 31N75W to South Florida. Farther E, another surface trough is analyzed from 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the latter trough affecting much of the Bahamas, and the Atlantic waters from 22N to 29N between the trough and 60W. The remainder of the Atlantic is under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High that has a 1033 mb center near 40N44W. Scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong trades across the tropical Atlantic. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted per altimeter data within these winds. For the forecast W of 55W, the trough extending from near 31N75W southwestward to South Florida will drift westward and weaken during the next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves W across the region. $$ GR