000 AXNT20 KNHC 261709 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong tropical wave has its axis along 42W from 02N-16N. A 1009 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 08N42W. The disturbance is moving W around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 240 nm of the low in the NE, NW and SW quadrants. Little to no convection is elsewhere along the wave axis. Fresh to strong winds and seas of 8-10 ft are likely occurring near and to the north of the disturbance. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development. The chance of tropical cyclone formation is medium during the next 48 hours, but high over the next 5 days. This system is forecast to approach the Windward Islands on Tue, then move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wed and Thu on a westward track. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely for the Windward Islands Tue night into Wed morning, and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. East Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong Azores High combined with low pressure over northwestern Africa is inducing gale force N winds near the coast of Morocco, in the marine zone Agadir. These gales are expected to continue through Mon. Seas will likely be 10 to 12 ft in the area. Please read the latest high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France at website http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave over west Africa has been added to the analysis along 14/15W from 16N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. The wave should emerge off the west coast of Africa later today. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm W of the wave axis and within 150 nm E of the wave axis from 03N-10N. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 28W from 02N to 14N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N-09N between 26.5W-33W and from 02N-05N between 23W-27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 58W south of 17N. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 270 nm either side of the wave axis from 07N to 16N, and is currently affecting the Windward and southern Leeward Islands. Enhanced rainfall will continue across the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands through tonight. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W to 09N21W. The ITCZ continues from 09N21W to 08N26W, from 07N29W to 08N40W, and from 08N44W to 10N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 47W-51W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from a 1015 mb low offshore SW Florida near 25.5N82W to near Bay St. Louis, MS. Scattered moderate to strong convection is near the trough and over the waters offshore the western Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana, from the coastline to beyond 120 nm offshore. Isolated thunderstorms are elsewhere over the NE Gulf of Mexico. A weak mid to upper-level trough is enhancing scattered showers and tstorms over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 18N to 25N between 94.5W and 97W. A high pressure ridge extends from near Galveston, TX to the Straits of Florida near 24N84W, anchored by a 1019 mb high pressure near 28N92W. Mostly gentle wind speeds prevail across the basin, based on the latest buoy observations. Altimeter passes from earlier this morning show seas of 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough over the NE Gulf will drift westward over the next few days. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the NW Gulf by mid- week before it moves inland over Texas and NE Mexico. Pulsing scattered showers and thunderstorms will accompany this trough on its westward journey across the northern Gulf. The aforementioned surface ridge will dominate the remainder of the Gulf waters into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is currently producing showers and tstorms across portions of the Lesser Antilles. See the Tropical Waves section for details. The eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough is along 10/11N in the SW Caribbean and is inducing numerous moderate scattered strong convection south of 12N and west of 75.5W. Mid to upper-level ridging is over the NW Caribbean, leading to somewhat drier weather there. However, afternoon heating will likely lead to the development of scattered thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles this afternoon. A recent ASCAT satellite data pass shows fresh trades over the south- central Caribbean, with moderate trades elsewhere over the eastern and central basin. Gentle winds prevail over the NW Caribbean. Altimeter data from last night showed seas of 4 to 6 ft across most of the open Caribbean waters, and seas have not changed much since that time. Seas of 1-3 ft are found in the gentle wind area of the NW basin. For the forecast, fresh trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will continue through early Mon. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles Tue night, possibly as a tropical cyclone. This system will move westward through the eastern Caribbean Wed and the central Caribbean Thu. Expect squalls with very gusty winds as well as rough seas across the Caribbean Sea as this system passes through. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Tropical Waves and Special Features sections above for details on the tropical waves traversing the basin and the gale near the coast of Morocco. A surface trough extends from South Florida to 31N75W. Another surface trough extends from 25N73.5W to 29N72W to 30.5N68W. An upper-level trough axis extends from 31N71W to the NW Bahamas. A smaller upper-level low is located near 27N60W. These features are producing scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 23N to 29N between 59W and 79W. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are elsewhere from 21N to 31N between 59W and 80W. High pressure ridging dominates the eastern half of the Atlantic. The latest ASCAT data shows mostly moderate wind speeds across the subtropical Atlantic, north of 24N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. Fresh to strong NE trades and 7 to 10 ft seas prevail from the ITCZ to 22N, east of 62W. For the forecast W of 55W, the trough extending from near 31N75W southwestward to 27N80W will drift westward during the next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening, possibly as a tropical cyclone, then move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night, and the central Caribbean Thu and Thu night. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves W across the region. $$ Hagen