000 AXNT20 KNHC 260553 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A strong tropical wave is located in the central Atlantic. Its axis is along 39W, south of 15N and the wave is moving W around 15 kt. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased over the past few hours, especially from 05N to 11N and between 35W and 45W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of this week. This system is forecast to move over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. Interests in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. The chance of tropical cyclone formation is medium during the next 48 hours, but high over the next 5 days. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely for the Windward Islands Tue night into Wed morning. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W, south of 15N and moving W around 15 kt. A few showers are observed near the trough axis. Another Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 55W, south of 15N and moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 14N and between 47W and 57W. This tropical wave is expected to produce enhanced rainfall over the Windward Islands on Sun and Sun night. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W to 10N21W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N21W to 08N24W, continues from 07N26W to 04N32W to 07N38W and then from 07N40W to 06N48W to 09N54W and from 09N56W to 08N59W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted along the west coast of Africa from Liberia all the way to southern Senegal, likely associated with the next tropical wave. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from SW Florida to the Mississippi coast. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the trough axis, especially associated with storm activity over South Florida and the northern Gulf coast. Slow development of this system could occur as it drifts westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next few days. The chance of development over the next 5 days is low. Elsewhere, weakening storms that developed over the Yucatan peninsula are moving over the eastern Bay of Campeche. The rest of the Gulf is dominated by a weak high pressure system that maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds are found off NE Yucatan, mainly S of 23N and E of 92W and also over the offshore waters of SE Texas and NE Tamaulipas. Seas in this regions are 2-3 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-2 ft are evident in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the trough of low pressure over the NE Gulf will drift westward over the the next days, with possible slow development. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Diurnal heating and abundant tropical moisture, in combination with the eastern portion of the east Pacific monsoon trough that extends from N Costa Rica to N Colombia, are producing a few showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean Sea. The strongest storms are found over the offshore waters of NW Colombia, Costa Rica and W Panama. Divergence aloft is also generating some showers over the SE Caribbean Sea. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to fresh trades across the central Caribbean, and primarily moderate winds elsewhere, with the exception of light to gentle winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are 4-6 ft over the south-central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the northwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Sun night as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue, and move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night and reach the central Caribbean Thu. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this wave over the next several days as it moves generally westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Currently, three tropical waves are moving westward across the tropical Atlantic. One of them has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. A surface trough extends from a 1017 mb low pressure near 30N74W to SE Florida, resulting in scattered showers near the trough axis. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found north of the trough, along with seas of 3-5 ft. Another surface trough is analyzed from 30N67W to 24N74W and it is producing a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly within 220 nm SE of the trough axis. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that some of the strongest storms are producing fresh to strong S-SE winds. Farther east, a small surface trough along 61W, from 29N to 32W, is generating some storm activity near the trough axis. Satellite-derived wind data also captured fresh to strong winds with the strongest storms. The rest of the area W of 60W enjoys mainly light to gentle winds and seas of 2-4 ft. The exception is near the eastern Greater Antilles, especially S of 22N, where moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft are present. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms due to low-level convergence and divergence aloft is noted along 58W, from 23N to 28W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a robust 1035 mb high pressure system near 41N42W. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures in the deep tropics and NW Africa results in fresh to strong trades south of a line from the coast of Morocco to the Leeward Islands. Seas in this large area are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 10N39W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a trough extending from a 1017 mb low near 30N74W southwest to 27N78W and to West Palm Beach, Florida will drift westward during the next few days. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening, then move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night, and the central Caribbean Thu and Thu night. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves across the region. $$ Delgado