000 AXNT20 KNHC 252321 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jun 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W from 02N to 15N, moving W around 15 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows a cyclonic circulation just ahead of the wave axis near 10N26W. Convection is limited. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 02N to 15N, moving W around 15 kt. The wave is only producing limited shower activity. Scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE winds ahead of the wave axis while an altimeter pass shows seas of 8-9 ft in association with this feature. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic, approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. The chance of tropical cyclone formation is low during the next 48 hours, but medium over the next 5 days. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely for the Windward Islands Tue night into Wed morning. Another tropical wave has its axis along 53W from 02N to 15N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the northern end of the wave axis and mainly from 11N to 14N between 49W and 53W. This tropical wave is expected to produce enhanced rainfall over the Windward Islands on Sun and Sun night. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W from 17N southward, moving W at around 10 kt. The wave is helping to induce some shower activity over Honduras and the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W to 08N24W to 09N30W. The ITCZ continues from 09N30W to 06N40W to 08N52W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted along the west coast of Africa from Liberia all the way to southern Senegal, likely associated with the next tropical wave. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends over the NE Gulf and central Florida generated numerous showers and thunderstorms. The remainder of the Gulf region is under the influence of a 1019 mb high pressure located near 28N91W, that is producing light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft. For the forecast, the surface trough will meander across the NE Gulf through Mon. A low pressure area could develop over the N Gulf early next week and drift westward across the north-central or northwestern Gulf, with any development being slow to occur. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwestern Caribbean Sea from northern Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture combining with low- level convergence supports clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection over the SW Caribbean, including also northern Colombia and western Venezuela. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted across much of Cuba due to diurnal heating and sea breeze boundaries. Similar convective activity is over Hispaniola and western Puerto Rico. Recent ASCAT satellite data show moderate to locally fresh trades across the central Caribbean, and mainly moderate winds elsewhere, with the exception of gentle winds over the NW part of the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft over the south-central Caribbean, 3-4 ft over the eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the northwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Sun night as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue, and move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night and reach the central Caribbean Thu. Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this wave over the next several days as it moves generally westward. Gusty winds in squalls and buildings seas are likely Wed and Wed night over the eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Currently, three tropical waves are moving westward across the tropical Atlantic. One of them has the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Please, see the Tropical Waves section for more details. A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N72W to a weak 1015 mb low pressure located just N of the NW Bahamas. A surface trough extends from the low across central Florida into the NE Gulf of Mexico. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate NE winds north of the front. Mainly light and variable winds are S of the front. A band of showers with embedded thunderstorms is within about 150-180 nm ahead of the front, and is associated with an upper-level trough. An upper-level low is near 26N60W generated some shower and thunderstorm activity. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters are dominated by a 1035 mb high pressure located near 41N43W. Over the eastern Atlantic, moderate trades generally prevail north of 23N with 5-6 ft seas. Fresh trades are found from the ITCZ to 23N, where seas are 6-8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will dissipate tonight. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will approach the Windward Islands on Tuesday, and move across the southern Caribbean Sea on Wednesday and Thursday. Expect a broad surge of winds and seas with this wave as it moves across the region. $$ GR