000 AXNT20 KNHC 251717 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jun 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 20W from 02N to 15N, moving W around 15 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows a mid-level cyclonic circulation out ahead of the wave near 08N23W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm E of the wave axis and within 360 nm W of the wave axis from 04N to 10N, including where the mid-level circulation is located. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 36W from 02N to 15N, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 180 nm E of the wave axis and within 240 nm W of the wave axis from 07N to 12N. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. The chance of tropical cyclone formation is low during the next 48 hours, but medium over the next 5 days. Heavy rain and gusty winds are likely for the Windward Islands Tue night into Wed morning. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 52/53W from 02N to 15N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm either side of the wave axis from 06.5N to 12.5N. This tropical wave is expected to produce enhanced rainfall over the Windward Islands on Sun and Sun night. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 17N southward, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm E of the wave axis from 13N to 16N, mainly over eastern Honduras, northeastern Nicaragua, and Caribbean waters within 60 nm of those coasts. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of The Gambia near 13N17W to 08N23W to 09N30W. The ITCZ continues from 09N30W to 08N35W, then from 07N37W to 07N45W to 09N49W to 08N51W, then from 07N54W to 07N58W. Aside from convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N to 05N between 06W and 15W, and from 07.5N to 10.5N between 41.5W and 46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from near Sarasota, Florida across the northeastern Gulf to near Pensacola, Florida. Satellite imagery and Doppler radars show scattered moderate isolated strong convection over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, mainly NE of a line from Naples, FL to the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Broad surface ridging prevails over the remainder of the basin, leading to light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 3 ft. For the forecast, the surface trough will meander across the NE Gulf through Mon. A low pressure area could develop over the N Gulf early next week and drift westward across the north-central or northwestern Gulf, with any development being slow to occur. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwestern Caribbean Sea from northern Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture combining with low- level convergence is leading to scattered moderate to strong convection over the southwest part of the Caribbean Sea, mainly south of 13.5N between 76W and 82W. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms have recently developed in the waters near Jamaica from 16N to 19.5N between 74W-81W. Water vapor imagery shows relatively dry conditions over the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea. Recent ASCAT satellite data show mainly moderate trades across the Caribbean Sea. Gentle E winds prevail over the northwestern Caribbean. Seas are 5-7 ft over the south-central Caribbean, 3-4 ft over the eastern Caribbean and 1-3 ft in the northwestern Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through late tonight. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave, currently along 36W, is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles Tue night, and move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and there is a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 5 days as it moves westward. Gusty winds in squalls and buildings seas are likely Wed and Wed night over the eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N73W to a weak 1015 mb low pressure just offshore Cape Canaveral, FL near 28N80W. A surface trough continues W from the low to near Sarasota, Florida. A recent ASCAT pass shows moderate NE to ENE winds north of the front. Gentle SE to S winds are south of the front. Seas are generally 2-5 ft west of 65W. An upper-level trough is along 31N71W to 26N75W. Upper-level diffluence to the east of the upper-trough is enhancing scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection from 24N-31N between 62W-71W. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N59W to 26N60W. Another upper-level low is nearly on top of this surface trough, near 26N60W. These features are producing scattered moderate convection from 25N-31N between 56W-61W. Recent ASCAT data shows fresh SE winds within 150 nm E of the surface trough, from 27.5N-31N between 57.5W-59.5W. Seas are likely 6-7 ft in this area. Broad surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the Atlantic east of 55W, anchored by a 1036 mb high pressure centered near 41N43W. Over the eastern Atlantic, moderate trades generally prevail north of 23N with 5-6 ft seas. Fresh trades are found from the ITCZ to 23N, where seas are 6-8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will meander and weaken today then dissipate tonight. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening, and pass to the south of the area as it moves through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night, accompanied by a broad surge in winds and seas. $$ Hagen