080 AXNT20 KNHC 251129 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jun 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 17W/18W from 02N to 16N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are east of the to inland the coast of Africa from 06N to 12N. Isolated showers are along the wave axis from 06N to 08N. Latest satellite imagery clearly shows a mid-level cyclonic circulation out ahead of the wave near 08N22W. Broken to overcast mostly low and mid-level clouds are noted with this feature covering the area from 06N to 10N and between 20N-26W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 210 nm in the SW and 120 nm in the NW quadrants of the cyclonic circulation. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible elsewhere underneath the aforementioned clouds. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W from 02N to 15N, moving westward at 17 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed ahead of the wave from 06N-12N between the wave and 39W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W from 02N to 15N. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate strong convection are increasing ahead of this wave to 58W and from 06N-11N. Similar convection is within 240 nm east of the wave from 09N to 12N. Enhanced rainfall and gusty winds are possible over the Windward Islands as the tropical wave passes through the area Sun and Sun night. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic coast through the coast of Senegal near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 10N24W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N33W, then from 07N34W to 07N43W to 08N45W to 07N49W. It then extends from 07N51W to 06N57W. Aside from convection associated to tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen within 30 nm south of the trough between 21W-24W, and within 30 nm of 06N18W to 04N22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from north-central Florida west- northwestward to a weak 1012 mb low over the Florida panhandle. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf and over the western part of the central Gulf, where a low to mid-level trough is present. The rest of the Gulf is under fairly tranquil weather conditions. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the basin, except for moderate southeast to south winds off the southeastern Texas and northeastern Tamaulipas coasts. Seas of 1-3 ft are across the Gulf. For the forecast, the weak low to mid-level trough over the central Gulf will shift W and weaken as it approaches northeastern Mexico tonight into Sun. A weak trough will then develop from the MS coastal waters to the SW Florida coastal waters by late this afternoon and linger through Mon. A low pressure area could develop over the norther Gulf early next week. It is expected to drift westward across the north- central or northwestern Gulf, with any development being slow to occur. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through the weekend and into early next week, supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern segment of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwestern Caribbean Sea from northern Costa Rica to northwestern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture combining with low-level convergence is leading to numerous moderate to strong cluster of moderate to strong convection over the southwest part of the sea within 60 nm either side of a line from 10N75W northwest to 13N80W and to 14N84W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 16N and west of 76W. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes revealed fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean Sea. Seas in this region are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds are over the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean, while light to moderate winds are over the northwestern Caribbean. Seas range from 3-5 ft in the north-central and eastern Caribbean, and 1-3 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will continue through late tonight. as the Atlantic ridge remains centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trades will dominate. A strong tropical wave is expected to reach the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue, and move through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night. The wave will be accompanied by increasing winds and building seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is analyzed from near 31N73W to 29N79W and to just east of northeastern Florida. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is to the south of this boundary from 25N to 28N and between 73W-79W. Some of this activity is capable of producing strong to near gale-force winds. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are north of the frontal boundary. Light to moderate south-southeast winds are over the remainder of the area west of about 60W along with seas of 3-6 ft. A surface trough is along 57W from 25N-28W. This trough is underneath an upper-level low that is identified on water vapor imagery to be near 26N61W. Plenty of instability provided by these features has resulted in scattered moderate convection from 25N to 29N and between 56W-59W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a strong 1036 mb high pressure system that is well north of the area near 41N43W. This feature is maintaining rather tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures in the deep tropics and NW Africa is causing fresh to locally strong winds south of a line from the Canary Islands to the Leeward Islands. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Moderate or lighter winds and seas of 4-6 ft are present over the rest of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front will will weaken and dissipate today. Elsewhere, Atlantic high pressure will remain centered across the central Atlantic near 40N. A strong tropical wave will reach near 60W late Tue evening, and pass to the south of the area as it moves through the eastern Caribbean Sea Wed and Wed night. $$ Aguirre